Vietnam-US trade agreement: Positive signal for capital flows and stock market

The trade agreement between Vietnam and the United States is being assessed by analysts as an important step forward, contributing to resolving one of the biggest uncertainties for businesses and investors in recent times.

Investors monitor stock market developments at the HOSE. Illustrative photo: Hua Chung/VNA

According to Maybank Securities Company (MBKE), this is a positive signal to help the financial market stabilize again, creating a premise for foreign capital to return to the Vietnamese market in the second half of 2025.

Assessing the ability to respond, MBKE believes that most Vietnamese export enterprises have made certain preparations. Many enterprises are proactively negotiating cost-sharing mechanisms with import partners in the US, adjusting their selling price structure and optimizing their supply chains to maintain competitiveness.

In addition, the trend of diversifying export markets is also being strongly promoted to reduce dependence on the market. With structural factors such as a developed production base, 17 free trade agreements (FTAs), competitive labor costs and a population of nearly 100 million people, Vietnam is expected to maintain its position as an attractive destination for international capital flows in the coming time.

In the stock market, MBKE said the trade deal has removed a major uncertainty, allowing investors to refocus on fundamentals such as domestic growth prospects and corporate earnings.

MBKE continues to recommend prioritizing dividend-paying stocks, as well as sectors supported by investment structures and stimulus packages such as information technology, logistics, aviation, real estate, consumer goods and steel.

Mr. Pham Luu Hung - Chief Economist , Director of SSI Research (SSI Securities Joint Stock Company) - commented: This is a "very positive signal", especially when Vietnam becomes the third largest partner of the US and can reach a preliminary agreement on tariffs - the basis for enhancing its international trade position.

“If the new tax rate is accompanied by favorable rules of origin, this could be a stable foundation, not just temporary,” Mr. Hung commented. Mr. Pham Luu Hung also emphasized that the factor that needs to be closely monitored is the deadline of July 9, which is the end of the 90-day negotiation period.

“We not only care about tax rates but also have to closely monitor rules of origin. Lessons from the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans- Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) show that if the rules of origin are too strict, businesses will find it difficult to enjoy incentives even with low tax rates,” Mr. Hung said.

The Vietnamese stock market is also responding positively to the new information. As of the trading session on July 2, the VN-Index closed at 1,384.59 points, marking its highest level in more than 3 years. The last time this index recorded an equivalent level was on April 20, 2022, when the VN-Index closed at 1,384.72 points. The fact that the VN-Index re-established the high level of April 2022 shows that market sentiment is more positive, with improved cash flow and high expectations for second-quarter business results, market upgrade progress, and the ability to attract foreign capital in the second half of 2025.

In the morning session of July 3, the market maintained a positive trading status, despite slight fluctuations at the beginning of the session. VN-Index recovered and surpassed the 1,390 point threshold. At the end of the morning session, VN-Index increased by 7.19 points to 1,391.78 points.

In the international market, Nike shares - a company with 50% of its shoe production and 30% of its apparel production in Vietnam - rose 4% in the latest session on Wall Street, reflecting global investors' confidence in the ability to maintain a stable supply chain from Vietnam after the agreement.

According to forecasts from MBKE, profit growth of listed enterprises in fiscal year 2025 is expected to reach 15.1% year-on-year, supported by stable export activities and strong domestic demand.

As trade risks have eased, the outlook for Vietnam's stock market in the second half of the year is considered promising, with investor sentiment gradually stabilizing and foreign capital flows expected to return soon.

According to baotintuc.vn

Source: https://huengaynay.vn/kinh-te/thoa-thuan-thuong-mai-viet-nam-hoa-ky-tin-hieu-tich-cuc-cho-dong-von-va-thi-truong-chung-khoan-155317.html