Double-digit growth: What is the driving force for Vietnam to break through?

Driving force for high growth

Vietnam is facing an urgent need to achieve an economic growth rate of 8% in 2025 and double-digit growth in the following years.

Sharing at the Vietnam Economic Growth Forum 2025 on the afternoon of July 8 in Hanoi , Mr. Dang Duc Anh - Deputy Director of the Institute for Policy and Strategy Studies said that in 40 years of renovation, Vietnam's economic growth has never reached 10%. However, in some years, Vietnam has approached this figure. The question is "what are the driving forces for high and sustainable growth in the next 5 years as well as the following years"?

According to Mr. Duc Anh, one of the growth drivers is the industrial and construction sector. In particular, the processing and manufacturing sector will play a key role if Vietnam strongly transforms technology and upgrades the value chain, especially supporting industry, which has the largest room for development. In addition, renewable energy is considered a "gold mine" for Vietnam if institutional bottlenecks can be resolved. Meanwhile, the construction sector also has the potential for breakthrough growth thanks to key national projects on transport infrastructure.

Mr. Dang Duc Anh - Deputy Director of the Central Institute for Policy and Development Strategy.

The second driving force comes from the service sector, which has great potential, especially in industries such as tourism , e-commerce, transportation and warehousing, and financial services. These industries will develop strongly if they effectively exploit the available space, associated with the development of infrastructure and information technology systems.

Agriculture continues to be a strong pillar of the economy, with great development opportunities if Vietnam goes deeper into exploitation, increases added value, builds brands and expands markets.

Along with the industry dynamics, experts believe that the advantages from growth poles and institutions are also important factors, especially when the Government is oriented towards development creation and the process of strong decentralization and delegation of power. At the same time, restructuring the economic space will open up new opportunities and development space.

5 strategic breakthroughs

Highlighting the challenges of achieving growth targets in the context of a slowing global market, Mr. Le Tien Truong - Chairman of the Vietnam National Textile and Garment Group (Vinatex) said that the current export scale of the textile and garment industry in Vietnam has reached more than 45 billion USD. However, if the expectation is to grow by 10% per year until 2030, the export figure needs to reach about 80 billion USD. According to Mr. Truong, this is impossible if we only develop in breadth while global demand has not yet recovered after the pandemic.

Therefore, Mr. Truong suggested that instead of chasing quantity growth, the Government needs to have more policies to encourage investment in technology, promote productivity and especially green transformation. In particular, developing the textile industry in a circular and environmentally friendly direction is the key for the industry to integrate more deeply into the global value chain.

Meanwhile, Ms. Mai Kieu Lien - General Director of Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company (Vinamilk) said that double-digit growth does not necessarily mean that all sectors grow equally strongly.

According to Ms. Lien, it is important to foster the business community’s confidence in the country’s development direction. This confidence will motivate businesses to boldly invest, expand production and innovate.

Ms. Mai Kieu Lien - General Director of Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company (Vinamilk).

To do that, Ms. Lien suggested that the Government should reform the current legal document system, which still has many overlaps and shortcomings. At the same time, it should strengthen the "listening and sharing" mechanism from the authorities, especially during the period when businesses are facing difficulties due to market fluctuations and increased production costs.

Sharing the same perspective on growth targets, Dr. Can Van Luc believes that Vietnam does not necessarily have to pursue a double-digit growth target throughout the period up to 2045.

“In the 2026-2030 period, if we achieve a growth rate of 9%, and in the 2031-2045 period, we achieve an average growth rate of 7.5% per year, then by 2045, our per capita income will reach 22,700 USD. This figure is completely enough to make Vietnam a high-income developed country,” the expert calculated.

Expert Can Van Luc proposed 5 strategic breakthroughs instead of the current 3 proposed by the Politburo. In addition to the 3 breakthroughs in institutions, infrastructure and human resources, 2 more breakthroughs should be added: including science and technology, innovation and anti-waste.

Experts also proposed a simultaneous "3I" growth model (Investment, Innovation, and Integration), instead of sequentially as recommended by the World Bank.

At the same time, it is necessary to properly manage risks in the financial, real estate and gold markets, as well as exploit the potential of the carbon market and be determined in reducing environmental pollution...

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Source: https://doanhnghiepvn.vn/kinh-te/chinh-sach/tang-truong-hai-con-so-dong-luc-nao-cho-viet-nam-but-pha/20250708083949459

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