Credit institutions predict that business results will really "explode", with strong growth momentum from now until the end of the year, possibly reaching 16.8% by the end of 2025.
Raising expectations in Q3
According to the results of the survey on business trends in the third quarter of 2025 of credit institutions and foreign bank branches, recently conducted by the State Bank, credit institutions assessed that the overall business situation and pre-tax profits of the banking system in the second quarter had improved compared to the first quarter, but were significantly lower than expected.
According to the actual survey results, credit institutions raised their expectations for credit growth in 2025 to 16.8%, higher than the growth rate in 2024. At the same time, capital mobilization growth was also adjusted up to 13.9%. If achieved, this would be the highest level in the past 5 years.
It is forecasted that capital mobilization of the whole system will increase by an average of 4% (VND will increase by 4.4% and foreign currency will increase by 2.5%) and outstanding credit is forecast to increase by 4.7%, in which VND and foreign currency will reach 4.7% and 4.8% respectively in the third quarter.
VND deposit lending and interest rates continued to decrease slightly in the second quarter, especially lending interest rates. By the end of 2025, VND deposit and lending interest rates are forecast to remain unchanged compared to the end of 2024.
Demand for banking services continued to increase sharply in the second quarter and is expected to continue in the third quarter as well as throughout 2025. Notably, up to 62.6% of credit institutions expect demand for loans to increase, surpassing demand for payments and deposits.
In the second quarter, credit institutions said they continued to adjust the average price of products and services down, in which the marginal interest rate was adjusted down more than the service fee as expected.
This trend of slightly decreasing interest rates is expected to continue in Q3 and until the end of 2025, with the main driver still coming from the reduction in marginal interest rates, contrary to the expected slight increase in the second half of 2025 recorded in the previous survey.
The liquidity situation of the banking system in the second quarter was assessed to remain “good”, but the improvement was “slightly reduced” compared to the previous quarter and compared to expectations. It is forecasted that for the third quarter and the whole year of 2025, liquidity will continue to improve, but the expected improvement level will still be lower than in 2024.
In addition, about 70.2% - 76.3% of credit institutions assessed that the internal factors of the unit continued to improve in the second quarter and the whole year of 2025. In particular, "interest rate, credit and exchange rate policies" are considered the most important internal factors that actively support business activities.
Only 3.5% of credit institutions expressed concerns that internal factors such as resources, financial capacity, technological infrastructure or product innovation capabilities could reduce business activities this year.
Regarding objective factors, 65.8% - 72.8% of credit institutions believe that objective factors, such as economic demand, customers' financial conditions, etc., will have a positive impact on the unit's operations in the second quarter and the whole year of 2025.
However, the State Bank's credit policy, interest rates and exchange rates are forecast to be the most important objective factors this year. However, 6.03% - 12.93% of credit institutions still expressed concerns about negative external factors, of which "competition from other credit institutions" continued to be the biggest concern, with 25% of credit institutions assessing this as the main risk in the second quarter and 23.28% in the whole year of 2025.
Maintain operating interest rates
Deputy Governor of the State Bank Pham Thanh Ha said that since the beginning of the year, the State Bank has kept the operating interest rates unchanged to maintain stable interest rates, creating favorable conditions for promoting credit.
On the market side, commercial banks - with the role of implementing policies, have actively implemented the State Bank's direction on stabilizing the mobilization interest rate level, creating a foundation for cost savings, thereby reducing lending interest rates. As a result, the average lending interest rate for new loans is at 6.38%/year, down about 0.6% compared to the end of 2024.
Regarding credit, as of June 26, the total outstanding debt of the whole system reached over 16.9 million billion VND, an increase of 8.3% compared to the end of 2024. Compared to the same period in 2024 (end of June 2024), credit increased by 18.87%, the highest increase since 2023.
The credit structure is consistent with the structure of the economy and meets the credit needs of people and businesses. The credit structure includes several main sectors: Agriculture, forestry and fishery accounts for about 6.37%; processing and manufacturing industry accounts for about 12.84%; construction industry accounts for 7.53%.
Credit for priority sectors, agriculture , rural areas and small and medium enterprises continue to be the two sectors with the largest proportions. mobilization, agriculture and rural areas account for 23.16%. Credit for small and medium enterprises accounts for 17.51%. In terms of growth rate, the two priority sectors, supporting industry and high-tech enterprises, both have very high growth rates, nearly double the general rate. specifically, supporting industry is 15.69% and high-tech enterprises is 17.59%.
Credit institutions continue to disburse for credit programs under the direction of the Government and the Prime Minister , such as the Credit Program for the forestry and fishery sector, which has increased in scale from VND 15,000 billion to VND 100,000 billion and has been implemented very effectively. In addition, credit programs supporting the linkage of production, processing and consumption of 1 million hectares of high-quality rice in the Mekong Delta have also been actively implemented.
Some other programs such as social housing loans, or loans for young people under 35 years old to rent or buy social housing, or the recent program of VND 500,000 billion credits for businesses investing in infrastructure, digital technology... have been actively implemented by credit institutions.
Deputy Governor Pham Thanh Ha emphasized that in the last 6 months of the year, the State Bank will continue to synchronously manage credit solutions in accordance with macroeconomic developments, inflation, as well as the economy's capital absorption capacity. At the same time, it will promptly deploy solutions to remove difficulties, creating favorable conditions for people and businesses to access bank credit.
Source: https://hanoimoi.vn/ket-qua-lanh-doanh-cua-ngan-hang-se-bung-no-trong-nua-cuoi-nam-708249.html
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