What to invest to make money in the second half of the year?

(Dan Tri) - The 40% price increase in the first half of the year helped gold achieve investment performance surpassing stocks, savings, etc. Experts say it is very difficult to choose a potential investment channel for the second half of the year.

Savings, gold, stocks and real estate are often considered investment channels that attract many people to "put money down", with the goal of storing or earning profits from idle funds. Investor tastes also change in the context of volatile financial markets.

Year-to-date, gold is the best performing investment.

Gold up 40% in half a year

Since the beginning of the year, domestic and world gold prices have recorded remarkable fluctuations with a strong upward trend, reflecting the influence of global macroeconomic and geopolitical factors.

The price chart from the beginning of the year shows that, from the beginning of January, the gold price began to increase steadily and continuously, especially skyrocketing from the end of March to the beginning of May. At its highest point, the price of SJC reached 124 million VND/tael, before adjusting slightly and stabilizing around the current level of 120 million VND/tael.

According to current data, the selling price of SJC gold bars is around 120-121 million VND/tael, plain rings are at 116 million VND/tael. The converted world gold price is also up to 106.4 million VND/tael.

On January 1, the price of SJC gold bars was around VND85 million/tael. By the end of June, the price had increased to VND120 million/tael, an increase of about VND35 million, equivalent to more than 40% in just half a year. Although the world gold price also increased sharply, the amplitude was lower and still significantly lower than the domestic SJC price.

If an investor buys SJC gold bars on the first day of the year at VND85 million/tael, after half a year, they will temporarily earn nearly VND33 million/tael, equivalent to nearly 40%, a high profit compared to many other investment channels in the same period.

On the contrary, if you buy gold at the peak price of about 124 million VND/tael at the end of April, and hold it until now, you will have lost about 6.2 million VND/tael. The loss is not too big, but it shows the risk of buying when the market is hot.

Gold is still an investment channel with good performance in the first half of the year (Photo: Manh Quan).

Previously, in 2024, the gold market was assessed by experts and investors as a volatile year, a milestone in history with unprecedented developments.

For example, when domestic and international gold prices continuously reached new record highs, the market had remarkable developments. The State Bank organized a gold bar auction for the first time in more than 10 years. People lined up to buy gold at a "stable" price. For the first time, customers who wanted to buy gold had to register online. Gold bars and gold rings became scarce on the market...

Since the beginning of the year, the difference between the price of SJC gold bars and the converted world gold price has tended to increase sharply. If at the beginning of January, the converted world gold price was about 81-82 million VND/tael, and the SJC price was about 85 million VND/tael, the difference is only about 3-4 million VND.

By early May, when the gold price peaked, the world gold price was at 107 million VND/tael, while SJC exceeded 122 million VND/tael - a difference of more than 15 million VND/tael. By the end of the second quarter, although the price had slightly decreased, the gap between SJC gold and the world gold price was still more than 10 million VND/tael.

Stocks up nearly 9% after half a year

VN-Index - the index representing the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange, closed the last trading session of June at 1,376 points, up 3.3% compared to the previous month and 8.6% compared to the beginning of the year. This is the highest price range of the index since April 2022.

Over the past six months, the stock market has undergone a sharp and sudden correction in early April due to US President Donald Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs. This decline caused the VN-Index to lose 17%, breaking the 1,100-point mark and forcing many securities companies to lower their growth forecasts for this year.

Vietnamese stocks hit 3-year peak (Photo: Dang Duc).

The market then recovered strongly thanks to the Government's actions to reduce the impact of tariffs. The results of the recent negotiations were revealed by US President Donald Trump. Most recently, at the regular press conference of the second quarter of the Ministry of Finance on July 2, Mr. Hoang Van Thu, Vice Chairman of the State Securities Commission, talked about the prospect of Vietnam's market being upgraded in the September assessment, after a series of solutions to meet the requirements of rating organizations.

Interest rates in low areas

In 2023, after the State Bank adjusted the operating interest rate four times, banks entered the "race" to reduce deposit interest rates. The 12-month term interest rate from the peak of 10-12.5%/year at the beginning of the year was adjusted down to only 5% before the end of 2023.

In 2024, the wave of increasing savings interest rates began to strengthen from the beginning of April. At that time, the highest interest rate in the system for a 12-month term was only around 5%/year, but by the end of the year, banks had started paying interest rates from 6%/year for a term of 12 months or more, but most of them were medium and small-sized banks. In 2024, at least 10 banks adjusted their deposit interest rates up each month.

This year, interest rates were adjusted up continuously in the first two months of the year. However, since the meeting between the State Bank and commercial banks on interest rates on February 25, 29 domestic commercial banks have reduced their deposit interest rates by 0.1 to 1.05 percentage points per year.

This move came after the Prime Minister directed the "hot" inspection of banks that increased deposit interest rates in recent times. The Government leader also requested strict handling of violations and non-compliance with the directive. In particular, the Governor needs to consider and decide on the use of management tools on credit growth limits and license revocation according to regulations.

6-month term interest rates are low (Photo: Tien Tuan).

By the end of June, the market had only 3 banks paying interest rates of 6%/year or higher for a 12-month term.

With a 6-month term, the interest rate is only 3-5% per year, meaning that in the first half of this year, interest will be 1.5-2.5% per year. Of which, the group of state-owned banks and a few other banks pay interest around 3% per year, most units in the market pay from 4% per year or more, the highest rate is 5% per year.

Real estate "heats up" thanks to information about merging provinces and cities

Among the popular investment channels, there is also real estate. However, this channel does not have a representative index to be able to compare with the same reference system.

Since the beginning of the year, the real estate market has shown signs of slowing down, especially in the apartment segment. However, in early March, news of province and city mergers caused land in many areas to go into a “fever”.

According to the Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS), regarding the information about merging provinces and cities, recently, many localities have recorded price increases of 5-30% such as Ninh Binh, Ha Nam, Hai Phong, Bac Giang, Hai Duong, and the suburbs of Hanoi...

The Ministry of Construction also said that real estate prices have continued to increase recently, especially with rapid local price increases in some localities following news of mergers and new administrative agencies.

Hanoi view with the view of the two tallest buildings in Hanoi (Keangnam and Lotte) (Photo: Tien Tuan).

However, the “price fever” trend quickly cooled down. In many localities, land prices have now stagnated and transactions are low. According to data from a real estate unit, in May, the land segment had the sharpest decrease in interest, down 15% compared to the previous month. Experts say that this is only a temporary trend, not sustainable, causing consequences for the real estate market.

In the second quarter, only localities designated as administrative centers after the merger continued to increase prices slightly and had good liquidity. The rest of the markets stagnated and remained stable. Also in this quarter, apartment transactions in major cities decreased sharply, and prices were adjusted downward.

The reason for the decline in both apartment prices and transactions is that the National Assembly and the Government have issued many documents to ease the market, helping to increase supply. In particular, the supply of social housing may explode in the near future. Many investors are waiting for more signals from the market.

Expert: Stocks continue to be a prominent choice

Economist Phan Dung Khanh assessed that the Vietnamese stock market in the first half of the year had positive developments, with the VN-Index reaching its highest level in the past three years, despite external risks such as trade tensions, global inflation or geopolitical instability. This result partly shows the good adaptation of the Vietnamese economy to international fluctuations, and also reflects the effectiveness of management policies to promote growth.

According to him, the market outlook for the second half of the year continues to be positive. Some sectors are forecast to attract strong cash flows, including technology, finance, banking, securities, transportation, services and consumer goods. In addition, foreign capital flows are also showing more positive signs, especially in the context of many expectations about the possibility of upgrading the market in the near future, along with improvements in the business activities of listed enterprises.

Regarding the real estate market, experts said that the situation is more positive than one or two years ago, when transactions showed signs of recovery and liquidity improved significantly in the first half of the year. A series of new laws taking effect from July 1, along with the restructuring process of localities and economic growth expectations, are considered important supporting factors for the market's recovery.

However, Mr. Khanh noted that business trends are changing significantly. Many businesses and individuals are no longer too dependent on traditional business premises, thanks to the development of e-commerce and the livestream sales model. This may reduce demand for real estate in certain segments. At the same time, new regulations are also gradually tightening speculative activities, moving towards a more stable and sustainable market development instead of the hot growth of the previous period.

When asked about the most attractive investment channel in the second half of the year, Mr. Khanh said that stocks are likely to continue to be a prominent choice, reflecting the health of the economy as well as the ability to adapt to external risks. On the contrary, although gold prices are still at a record high, the profit margin is no longer as attractive as before. At the same time, bank interest rates remain low, making savings channels gradually less attractive to investors.

Stocks are an investment channel that reflects the health of the economy (Photo: Manh Quan).

“The trend of seeking more effective investment opportunities is increasing. Along with economic growth, the preference for safety has decreased, creating conditions for stronger cash flow into channels such as stocks and real estate,” Mr. Khanh commented. However, investors still need to be cautious, carefully assessing macroeconomic factors, cash flow trends and investment asset quality to avoid risks in the context of constantly fluctuating markets.

Investment in the second half of the year: No outstanding channel yet

Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Huu Huan, lecturer at Ho Chi Minh City University of Economics (UEH), commented that Vietnam's economic prospects in the second half of the year will be greatly affected by tariff factors and market psychology.

According to Mr. Huan, the decisive factor is tax policy. If Vietnam's tax rate is reasonable, lower or competitive with other countries in the region, it will contribute to promoting domestic consumption, supporting import and export and increasing confidence in the economy.

Conversely, if tax rates remain higher than competitors, foreign investment may withdraw, hurting growth. In an increasingly competitive global environment, improving the tax environment is vital to retaining investors.

A notable signal is that the industrial production index (PMI) has decreased for three consecutive months and is now below the 50-point threshold. This development shows that the manufacturing sector is facing difficulties and needs to be closely monitored in the coming months.

Regarding interest rates, Mr. Huan said that it is unlikely to increase in the second half of the year. If there are fluctuations, the regulatory agency will certainly have measures to intervene to stabilize them. Keeping interest rates low is a necessary condition to support production, business and consumption. The VND/USD exchange rate is forecast to fluctuate little. Although the USD tends to depreciate in the international market, Vietnam still controls the domestic exchange rate well. Only when the tariff situation worsens will the exchange rate be under pressure to increase.

The stock market in the second half of the year is forecast to fluctuate around the current level. Mr. Huan said the VN-Index could fluctuate between 1,300 and 1,400 points, as the recent increase mainly came from a number of large-cap stocks, while the majority of investor accounts have not yet made a profit.

The news of a possible market upgrade has not had a major impact, as there has been no official announcement from international organizations. Even if it were to be upgraded, this information would have been partly reflected in the price beforehand.

The industry group that attracts cash flow is still unknown. If geopolitics is tense, oil and gas stocks may be noticed. If trade is favorable, import-export groups will benefit. All scenarios depend on policy developments and the world situation.

Regarding the real estate market, Mr. Huan assessed that it is showing a recovery trend. The implementation of many new regulations and the unblocking of supply have helped the market gradually warm up. However, the possibility of a "feverish" situation happening again is very low. The government will take measures to control the market if it increases too quickly to avoid speculation. The period when just holding land is profitable is over. Investors are now forced to consider more carefully when putting money down.

Regarding investment channels in the second half of the year, Mr. Huan said that there is no outstanding channel. Gold is fluctuating unpredictably, transactions are still limited. Real estate is recovering but not strongly. Stocks are unlikely to have a clear breakthrough when they have increased quite a lot.

However, in the current uncertain context, Mr. Huan recommends that investors should diversify their portfolios to reduce risks. Putting money into a single channel has many potential risks.

"Don't put all your eggs in one basket. Investors need to stay flexible and alert to upcoming fluctuations," Mr. Huan emphasized.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/dau-tu-gi-de-tien-de-ra-tien-nua-cuoi-nam-20250703151105869.htm