Exchange rate cools down despite USD recovery

The central exchange rate increased sharply, setting a new record. However, at commercial banks, the USD exchange rate turned down and is maintaining a significant gap (72 VND/USD) compared to the regulated ceiling. Meanwhile, domestic gold turned up.

On the morning of July 8, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) announced the central exchange rate at 25,121 VND/USD, up 8 VND compared to yesterday, marking a new high of the year. With a 5% amplitude, today's ceiling exchange rate is 26,377 VND/USD, the floor exchange rate is 23,865 VND/USD. The reference exchange rate at the SBV's Transaction Office remains at 23,915 - 26,327 VND/USD (buy - sell).

Although the central exchange rate increased, the listed exchange rate at commercial banks decreased simultaneously. This is the second consecutive session that the exchange rate has "cooled down" after soaring to 26,350 VND/USD in the selling direction at the end of last week. At Vietcombank , the USD/VND exchange rate was traded at 25,945 VND/USD (buy) - 26,305 VND/USD (sell), down 25 VND each way compared to the previous session. In the free market, the USD selling price continued to be maintained at 26,500 VND, unchanged from yesterday.

At the press conference on the results of banking operations in the first 6 months of 2025 held this morning, the leaders of the State Bank of Vietnam said that the foreign exchange market in the first half of the year has been operating smoothly, the legitimate foreign currency needs of the economy have been fully and promptly met; the VND exchange rate has fluctuated flexibly, in accordance with market conditions. Explaining the opposite movements between the domestic exchange rate and the USD in recent times, Mr. Pham Chi Quang, Director of the VND Monetary Policy Department, said that in order to maintain the strength of the currency, first of all, the currency must be attractive, reflected in interest rates.

However, in recent times, the State Bank has implemented management policies to maintain low interest rates, supporting economic growth. Interest rates have continuously decreased since the end of 2022 until now. Since the beginning of the year, the average lending interest rate has decreased by another 0.6% per year. "To have low interest rates, there must be certain trade-offs, including the exchange rate," said Mr. Pham Chi Quang.

The exchange rate has cooled down despite the recovery of the USD. In the international market this morning, the US Dollar Index (DXY) recovered slightly to 97.3 points after a sharp decline in the previous session. However, pressure remains high as investors closely monitor developments in the US government's tariff policy. This week, President Donald Trump will send letters to leaders of countries, proposing tax rates ranging from 25% to 40%. However, the postponement of the tax imposition until August 1 has somewhat reassured the market.

DXY index recovers after sharp decline in early July

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said President Trump will have trade plans for each specific country. An executive order extending the tariff date from July 9 to August 1 will be issued. New reciprocal tariffs will be notified by letter to the leaders of the countries within the next month or, if an agreement is reached, these countries will continue to negotiate with the US.

Besides the tariff story, the positive US jobs report in June has greatly reduced expectations of the Fed cutting interest rates in July. Investors are waiting for the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in June, scheduled to be released tomorrow, for further guidance on monetary policy.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the cash rate unchanged at 3.85% at its July meeting, defying market expectations for a 25 basis point cut. The move was due to a more balanced outlook for inflation risks and the strength of the labour market. In a cautious outlook amid uncertainty, the RBA said it would wait for further data to confirm that inflation is on track to return to its target on a sustained basis.

The world spot gold price is currently fluctuating around 3,335 USD/ounce, down slightly compared to yesterday. However, domestically, the price of SJC gold bars recorded an increase of up to 500,000 VND/tael each way. At Saigon Jewelry Company (SJC), the buying and selling prices were listed at 119 million VND/tael and 121 million VND/tael, respectively. The price of gold rings also remained high, fluctuating from 115.7 - 118.7 million VND/tael.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/ty-gia-ha-nhiet-bat-chap-dong-usd-phuc-hoi-d326004.html