Money still flows into the bank

People put money into banks at record high

According to the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), in March alone, the amount of deposits from residents in banks increased by VND 103,000 billion, bringing the increase in the first 3 months of the year to VND 404,800 billion, equivalent to an increase of 5.73% compared to the end of 2024, to nearly VND 7.47 million billion. This is the highest level ever. Similarly, the amount of deposits from economic organizations in March also increased by VND 158,000 billion, to VND 7.52 million billion. This is the first month of increase in the first 3 months of the year but still decreased by VND 147,000 billion, equivalent to a decrease of 1.92%. In general, the total deposits of credit institutions and residents in the credit institution system reached nearly VND 15 million billion, an increase of nearly VND 268,000 billion in the first quarter of 2025, equivalent to an increase of 1.75%. Total means of payment reached 18.45 million billion VND, an increase of 2.99% compared to the end of 2024.

Tiền vẫn chảy vào ngân hàng- Ảnh 1. — Bank deposits increased sharply

Statistics from the first quarter financial reports of banks show that deposits of 4 state-owned banks (BIDV, Agribank, VietinBank, Vietcombank) account for 47% of the market share of the entire system. Of which, BIDV has a large amount of deposits, reaching more than 1.97 million billion VND, followed by Vietinbank and Vietcombank with 1.62 million billion VND and 1.51 million billion VND respectively. The remaining joint-stock banks have many large deposits such as MB with 722,600 billion VND, Sacombank with 585,600 billion VND, ACB with 550,400 billion VND, Techcombank with 531,600 billion VND...

It is worth noting that the amount of deposits from the population has increased despite the falling interest rates. Since the end of February, the Government and the State Bank of Vietnam have required banks to reduce deposit interest rates to create conditions for reducing lending interest rates. The deposit interest rates of banks have decreased by 0.3 - 1%/year depending on the term. For a 1-month term, savings interest rates range from 1.6 - 4.15%/year; 3-month from 1.9 - 4.35%/year; 6-month from 3.3 - 5.65%/year; 12-month from 5.1 - 5.95%/year, etc.

Thus, although many investment channels fluctuate continuously and have high liquidity, cash flow still chooses banks as a safe haven.

Cash flow looking for investment channels

Explaining the increase in cash flow into banks despite the decrease in savings interest rates, Mr. Nguyen The Minh - Director of Analysis of the Individual Clients Division of Yuanta Securities Vietnam Company - said that although savings interest rates are low, they are still a temporary shelter for individual investors to seek business opportunities. For personal cash flow, investment channels such as real estate, gold, and stocks are often chosen. However, recently, the gold market has had high prices, so there is not much room for growth; not everyone can invest in stocks, and real estate also requires finding suitable options. Meanwhile, the amount of corporate deposits has increased because production and business activities as well as investment have not expanded, and cash flows are temporarily deposited in banks to find opportunities in the future.

In fact, the current price of SJC gold bars is 4 - 5 million VND lower than the record price per tael, but the gold buying power in the market is low. On June 18, gold trading companies such as SJC, Bao Tin Minh Chau... bought SJC gold bars at 117.6 million VND, sold at 119.6 million VND. Phu Quy Company bought at 117 million VND, sold at 119.6 million VND. Those who bought gold at the end of April at 124 million VND/tael now lost 7 million VND. Those who bought gold rings had a higher loss, up to 8 - 9 million VND/tael. SJC Company bought gold rings at 113.7 million VND, sold at 116.3 million VND. Bao Tin Minh Chau Company bought at 114.8 million VND, sold at 117.8 million VND...

Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Huu Huan (University of Economics, Ho Chi Minh City) said that since the information on amendments and supplements to Decree 24 on gold market management was announced, domestic gold prices are likely to decrease. When the State abolishes the monopoly on SJC gold bars, the SJC gold bar brand is no longer an exclusive product, so there will be price competition, and the price difference between gold types will not be too large. Domestic gold prices are currently facing the risk of decreasing, so gold buyers at this time will consider carefully.

Forecasting in the coming time, Mr. Nguyen The Minh said that the amount of deposits may decrease. The reason comes from the more prosperous real estate market, some current projects have legal issues removed, customers who have deposited will proceed to pay for progress. When the real estate supply increases, personal deposits will be withdrawn to pay for these transactions.

Regarding the flow of business deposits, Mr. Nguyen The Minh said that when the US tariff story is over, businesses will be more confident in calculating their business. At this time, the amount of business deposits will also decrease. "Deposits in banks will decrease, putting pressure on banks when capital demand increases," said Mr. Nguyen The Minh.

USD price rises to high level

Banks increased the USD price by 43 - 45 VND compared to the beginning of June. Vietcombank bought at 25,853 - 25,883 VND, sold at 25,243 VND. ACB bought at 25,890 - 25,920 VND, sold at 26,243 VND... Compared to the beginning of the year, banks increased the USD price by 700 VND, equivalent to 2.7%. In the free market, the greenback price increased by 10 VND, bought at 26,310 VND, sold at 26,410 VND. The USD price on the world market continued to decrease compared to other foreign currencies, the USD-Index decreased by 0.2 points, down to 98.63 points.

According to UOB, the USD will continue to weaken against other major currencies and is forecast to continue to fall to 96.9 in Q1/2026. At the same time, the EUR/USD and GBP/USD exchange rates are forecast to continue to increase to 1.17 and 1.39 respectively in Q1/2026. The JPY, with the Bank of Japan's more moderate interest rate hike roadmap, will tend to increase gradually, reaching 140 USD/JPY in Q1/2026.

As for Asian currencies, although the volatility of early April has passed, there are still risks that could limit the recovery of regional currencies. These include uncertainty surrounding the outcome of trade negotiations between the US and China, as well as rapid appreciation of Asian currencies while the economic and trade outlook in the region is weakening.

The USD price is forecast to be at 26,100 VND by the end of Q2/2025, 26,300 VND in Q3/2025, 26,000 VND in Q4/2025, and 25,800 VND in Q1/2026.

Source: https://thanhnien.vn/tien-van-chay-vao-ngan-hang-185250618223915303.htm