Forecast of USD/VND exchange rate after bank USD peaks

(NLDO) - USD price at commercial banks reached its peak in the context of a sharp decrease in the DXY index on the international market.

On July 5, the State Bank announced the central exchange rate at 25,116 VND/USD, up more than 60 VND/USD compared to the beginning of the week. The exchange rate forecast shows an increase of about 3% year-to-date, reflecting the current economic situation. According to experts, this fluctuation may continue to affect the foreign exchange market in the coming time.

USD prices at commercial banks also hit a new peak. Vietcombank listed the USD buying price at 25,990 VND and the selling price at 26,350 VND, up 50 VND per USD compared to the beginning of the week.

Other banks such as Sacombank, Eximbank, BIDV, ACB also traded USD prices at peak levels, around 26,000 VND/USD for buying and 26,350 VND/USD for selling. If calculated from the beginning of the year until now, USD prices at commercial banks have also increased by more than 3%.

The USD/VND exchange rate increased despite the sharp decline in the USD price in the international market. Specifically, since the beginning of the year, the USD index (DXY) has decreased by nearly 11% and is currently trading around 97 points, in the context of calmer tensions in the Middle East.

The market also expects the US Federal Reserve (FED) to cut interest rates in the near future, causing the USD to continue its downward trend.

Bank USD price remains at high level

Exchange rate forecast and expectation of cooling down financial market in the coming time

Experts from Maybank Securities Company said that the USD/VND exchange rate is still under pressure, but expectations of an early stabilization are well-established. Vietnam's solid economic foundation - reflected in the trade surplus and positive FDI inflows in the first 5 months of the year - is playing an important role in supporting the supply of USD.

"The FED is expected to start cutting interest rates from July, which will narrow the interest rate gap between USD and VND, thereby reducing pressure on the exchange rate in the medium term. We expect the State Bank to continue to flexibly operate the open market, especially in managing the USD - VND interest rate gap, helping to maintain exchange rate stability in the coming time," said Maybank experts.

Similarly, experts from Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS) also said that although the strength index of the USD has cooled down, the speculative psychology of USD of domestic individual and institutional investors still exists, due to the trend of seeking safe assets. However, this psychology is short-term, mainly occurring in the context of no final results on tariff negotiations.

VCBS believes that the exchange rate will have a chance to cool down more clearly when Vietnam continues to maintain a stable economic foundation, registered FDI capital flows grow strongly and international trade storms have shown signs of easing compared to previous periods.

Source: https://nld.com.vn/du-bao-moi-nhat-ve-ti-gia-196250705112221683.htm