Gold prices edged lower as stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data largely erased expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month. The market is now pricing in just a 25% chance of a rate cut.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is set to announce its monetary policy decision this week, a highly anticipated event that will provide further clues on the direction of interest rates amid uncertainties over inflation and global economic growth.
In addition, the market is also interested in the weekly unemployment benefit claims data in the US. In the current context, this data provides insights into the health of the US labor market and potential inflationary pressures.
Gold price movements today
+ Domestic gold price
At 6:00 am on July 7, the price of gold bars at Doji and SJC was listed at 118.9 - 120.9 million VND/tael (buy - sell), unchanged from early this morning.
Meanwhile, the price of gold rings is currently listed by Doji at 115.5 - 117.5 million VND/tael (buy - sell), unchanged.
+ International gold price
The world gold price listed on Kitco is at 3,333 USD/ounce, down 4 USD/ounce compared to late yesterday afternoon. Gold futures last traded at 3,335 USD/ounce.
Gold Price Forecast
Looking ahead to next week's gold price forecast, Kitco News' short-term gold price survey continues to show a split between Wall Street professionals and retail investors. Analysts remain cautious, while retail investors are increasingly bullish.
Of the 14 experts who participated in the weekly gold survey, five (36%) predicted that gold prices would rise next week. In contrast, four (28%) said prices would fall, while the remaining five (36%) said the market would move sideways.
Meanwhile, an online survey of 243 investors showed a more positive trend. As many as 143 people (59%) expect gold prices to rise next week, higher than the 49 people (20%) who predict a decrease. About 51 investors (21%) hold the view that prices will remain unchanged.
Adrian Day, chairman of Adrian Day Asset Management, is more cautious, saying that a number of negative factors could come together to overshadow gold's performance: the possibility of a Fed rate cut as early as this month, new tariff agreements and a slowdown in central bank purchases, especially from China. However, he stressed that any correction in gold would be mild and short-lived.
Marc Chandler, an expert from Bannockburn Global Forex, also maintains a cautious view. Forecasting the world gold price next week, he said that the recovery of gold is fragile. According to him, the price could return to the $3,250/ounce range or lower.
“ Strong jobs data and rising interest rates are putting a lot of pressure on gold ,” he said.
Sharing the same view, Sean Lusk, co-director of trade defense at Walsh Trading, questioned the appropriateness of the Fed's rate cut at this time.
According to this expert, interest rate cuts are usually a sign of economic trouble. But right now, stocks are still at their peak and the economy is doing well. According to him, if the Fed cuts too soon, the risk of inflation returning is not to be underestimated.
However, Sean Lusk also believes that in the long term, gold still has a bullish outlook. " If there is a correction, it will only be temporary. We are still in a big bull cycle ," he said.
Source: https://baolangson.vn/gia-vang-hom-nay-7-7-giam-nhe-cho-dong-thai-moi-tu-fed-5052373.html
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