Ho Chi Minh City discusses US tax impact with 'road-borrowing' manufacturers

Director of the Ho Chi Minh City Research Institute Truong Minh Huy Vu said that the 40% tax rate for transit goods will have an impact. With the US terms, will the "borrowed road" manufacturers terminate their projects or have to adjust their production plans?

Director of Ho Chi Minh City Institute for Development Studies Truong Minh Huy Vu - Photo: HUU HANH

On the morning of July 4, Chairman of Ho Chi Minh City People's Committee Nguyen Van Duoc chaired a meeting on the socio -economic situation and results in the first 6 months of the year and tasks and solutions for the last 6 months of 2025.

This is the first socio-economic meeting of the new Ho Chi Minh City. In addition to evaluating the first 4 days of operating the two-tier local government model, the meeting also assessed and predicted the impacts of the US reciprocal tax on production, business, and GRDP growth of the new Ho Chi Minh City in the last 6 months of the year.

In the last 6 months of the year, Ho Chi Minh City must grow over 10%

Speaking at the meeting, Mr. Nguyen Khac Hoang - Head of the Ho Chi Minh City Statistics Office - said that according to the assessment of economic organizations, the risk of economic recession is increasingly evident, caused by the US tariff policy, prolonged inflation...

From July 1, Ho Chi Minh City has just come into operation with a very large economic scale. According to Mr. Hoang, the growth of 1% GRDP of Ho Chi Minh City is about 17,200 billion VND, equivalent to some pre-reorganization localities such as Dien Bien, Lai Chau, Cao Bang .

According to Mr. Hoang, at the Government meeting yesterday (July 3), the Prime Minister said that he would hand over growth targets to 34 new provinces and cities.

If we calculate the previously assigned target, Ho Chi Minh City is 8.55%, Binh Duong (old) is 10% and Ba Ria - Vung Tau (old), then Ho Chi Minh City will only grow by about 8.92% in 2025. Meanwhile, in the first 6 months of the year, Ho Chi Minh City only grew by 7.49% (excluding crude oil), so in the last 6 months of the year, we must strive for a growth of 10.25%.

Not to mention, if calculating growth according to the resolution of the People's Councils of the provinces and cities before the arrangement, the GRDP growth of Ho Chi Minh City in the last 6 months of the year must be from 11-12.5%.

These are extremely challenging numbers. Mr. Hoang believes that in the immediate future, we must promote traditional growth drivers, especially public investment.

Assessing further challenges, Mr. Hoang said that the consumer price index of Ho Chi Minh City is at a high level (4.4%), greatly affecting purchasing power and economic growth.

Not to mention, exports and imports in the first 6 months of the year have not met expectations and the last 6 months of the year will be affected by the US's reciprocal tax. In addition, although the business environment has improved after Resolution 68 on private economic development, there are still many bottlenecks.

Therefore, Mr. Hoang suggested that each industry should have a plan and build specific growth targets, taking advantage of the advantages of Ho Chi Minh City, Binh Duong, and Ba Ria - Vung Tau before the merger. At the same time, it is necessary to promote solutions to stabilize the market.

What will happen to manufacturers who "borrow the road"?

Analyzing the impacts on the Ho Chi Minh City economy in the last 6 months of the year, Dr. Truong Minh Huy Vu - Director of the Ho Chi Minh City Institute for Development Studies - said that Ho Chi Minh City's growth this year is very difficult to predict due to many uncertain factors. Among them, the conflict situation in the world and the complicated tax and monetary policies.

Recently, information on tariff negotiations between Vietnam and the US has shown more positive signs, but more detailed and specific information is needed for assessment.

"The 20% reciprocal tax on Vietnamese goods exported to the US is high or low, certainly higher than the current figure and lower than the previously set figure of 46%. The impact depends on the reciprocal tax of the US with countries that compete with Vietnam in exports such as India, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Thailand, and China," Mr. Vu assessed.

In addition, the 40% tariff on transit goods will have an impact. However, the concept of this transit goods must be defined and defined in US terms.

With the US terms, will the "borrowed" manufacturers terminate their projects or have to adjust their actual investment and production plans in Vietnam, as well as promote domestic production?

In addition, it is necessary to evaluate the 0% tax rate on US goods entering Vietnam. This is also a very big problem, not only affecting trade but also having important impacts on investment, supply chain shifts, technology, etc.

Ho Chi Minh City must soon have a "green channel" to attract investors.

For more information, Director of the Ho Chi Minh City Institute for Development Studies Truong Minh Huy Vu said that the driving forces of public and private investment have had many positive changes. However, the most worrying thing is still the business investment environment. According to a report by the Ho Chi Minh City Statistics Office, out of 10 enterprises participating in the market, 9 enterprises withdrew from the market.

Ho Chi Minh City needs to propose to soon pilot a "green channel" to attract investors, piloting it first in 10 priority projects. This will have an impact on both public and private investment. At the same time, it is necessary to urgently reform and cut down administrative procedures in the field of business investment.

Regarding the consumer price index, besides the positive aspects from festival and tourism activities, the CPI in the first 6 months increased by 4.44%. Of which, 8/11 groups had price index increases. Therefore, it is necessary to accelerate market stabilization, ensure social security...

In addition, it is necessary to pay attention to promoting new driving forces. The new Ho Chi Minh City needs to mobilize all resources to develop infrastructure, private investment; promote the construction of financial centers, large service centers; industrial, energy, urban transition; develop marine economic services; green and digital transformation; develop social housing, renovate houses on and along canals...

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Thao Le

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/tp-hcm-ban-tac-dong-thue-my-voi-cac-nha-san-xuat-muon-duong-20250704104959925.htm