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| The driving force from economic growth, trade negotiation results... will be the factors that boost the Vietnamese stock market in the second half of 2025. (Source: HSC) |
Bright spot from market upgrade expectations
The Vietnamese stock market closed the first 6 months of 2025 in a positive state when the VN-Index closed the last session of June at 1,376.07 points, up 5.30% compared to the first quarter and 8.63% compared to the end of 2024. This is also a good price increase compared to other stock markets in the region.
The positive impact on the market is the outstanding growth of large-cap stocks, VN30 with impressive price increases of many codes and groups of codes. The outstanding price increases of VN-Index and VN30 in the first half of the year mainly came from large-cap real estate stocks, banks, electricity - leading enterprises in industry groups considered to be less affected by tariffs. Most notably are the sudden price increases of VIC (+135.8%), VHM (+91.8%), GEE (+248.8%), GEX (+109.5%), TCB (+38.7%)...
SHS Securities Company assesses that, following the recovery and positive growth in the first half of the year, the market is now in the final stages of trade negotiations and tax suspension. The effects of tariffs may gradually be reflected in business results in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In the short term, the market needs time to absorb and update fundamental factors, especially the second quarter 2025 business results of industry groups directly affected by tariff changes.
Therefore, SHS believes that there are 4 main drivers for the market in the final period of the year, which are: Completing trade negotiations with lower reciprocal tariffs than the original; The economy and businesses maintain growth, interest rates remain low; Expectations of new growth drivers from Resolution 57-59-66-68-NQ/TW 2025 and Expectations of upgrading the stock market.
By the end of June 2025, the total market capitalization will be about 310 billion USD, about 65% of GDP in 2024. This is still considered a relatively attractive level considering the growth prospects and GDP scale in 2025 and 2026. The P/E valuation of VN-Index at 14.1 is nearly equal to the average P/E of 3 years (14.7) and the average of 5 years (16.7). The Forward P/E of 11.54 is still considered relatively attractive compared to the current growth prospects.
SHS continues to maintain its forecast that in the last 6 months of 2025, the VN-Index will aim for a target price of around 1,420 points with the expectation that the market will be upgraded. At the same time, it is expected that the total market transaction value will remain positive in the second half of the year, growing compared to the low base level in the same period in 2024. On average in 2025, the total market transaction value is forecasted to increase by about 10% compared to 2024.
Meanwhile, in a more positive forecast, VCBS believes that, with the base scenario, VN-Index is forecasted to reach 1,555 points with VN-Index's P/E reaching 14.6x and market EPS increasing by 12%.
In the optimistic scenario, the index could reach 1,663 points with market upgrade expectations, strong and decisive policies to boost growth and further positive steps from flexible diplomacy .
VCBS estimates that the P/E of the Vietnamese market will fluctuate in the range of 13.9x - 15.3x in 2025 because in recent years, the VN-Index has been valued at the same level as the regional average.
The increase in the Index could help increase average liquidity to at least VND26,000 billion/session. In addition, when upgraded by FTSE, the Vietnamese stock market could receive a net foreign inflow of up to USD1.3 - 1.5 billion in the third quarter of 2025 (including USD950 million from passive ETFs modeled after the FTSE Emerging Markets Index basket and the capitalization ratio of the Vietnamese market is 0.94%). structuring, foreign transactions are also expected to reverse from net selling to net buying.
Where to invest in the second half of 2025?
Considering the current developments, VCBS assesses that in the second half of 2025, Bluechips (large-cap stocks) will continue to be the destination of large cash flows with the expectation that the Vietnamese market will be upgraded to an emerging market in the context of major countries continuing to loosen monetary policy, and the pressure on reciprocal trade tariffs with the United States has passed.
The group of small and mid-cap stocks will recover when there are signs of profit growth catching up with the Bluechips group and receiving cash flow spreading from Bluechips.
Meanwhile, in terms of industry forecasts, SHS has selected a number of typical industry groups in the second half of 2025, including: Residential Real Estate, Financial Services, Banking, Basic Materials and Infrastructure.
Paralyzed, the residential real estate industry is forecasted to be positive thanks to the Legal Corridor that helps businesses implement projects faster. At the same time, interest rates remain low, supporting investors to reduce capital costs and attract home buyers. Residential real estate is also an industry that is less affected by negative impacts due to US tariff policies.
The financial services and securities industry is expected to benefit from the expectation of a FTSE upgrade of the stock market. Securities companies focusing on the institutional client segment such as SSI, VCI and HCM will benefit from the deployment of margin-free services, along with the expected capital inflow into the Vietnamese market.
Regarding the banking group, although still cautiously assessing the NIM trend, SHS still maintains a positive assessment. Credit growth continues to be the main driving force for economic growth, supporting credit growth in the banking sector. Resolution 42/2017 was legalized, giving the right to seize collateral to credit institutions to help the banking system accelerate the progress of bad debt settlement, thereby helping to unblock capital flows, increase profitable assets and improve the NIM ratio. At the same time, the valuation of banking stocks remains attractive. Cash flow will be directed to banks with investment stories about growth prospects, new communication directions to increase competitiveness, extraordinary income or complete restructuring.
Basic materials groups such as Steel or Fertilizer are also supported by recovering demand and infrastructure businesses will face many opportunities when public investment is boosted.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/ky-vong-moi-cho-thi-truong-chung-khoan-viet-nam-nua-cuoi-nam-2025-320061.html
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