| China is still Vietnam's largest pepper export market. South Korea increases pepper imports from the Vietnamese market. |
The Import-Export Department ( Ministry of Industry and Trade ) cited statistics from the General Department of Customs, saying that it is estimated that in 2023, Vietnam will export 267 thousand tons of pepper, worth 912 million USD, up 16.6% in volume, but down 6.0% in value compared to 2022. The average export price of Vietnam's pepper will reach about 3,420 USD/ton in 2023, down 19.4% compared to 2022.
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| Pepper exports in 2023 will earn 912 million USD |
In 2023, the Vietnamese pepper industry will face difficulties due to low consumption demand. The economic recession, high inflation, prolonged geopolitical tensions, and strong fluctuations in the global financial market have had an impact on the demand for goods in general and pepper in particular. At the end of 2023, Vietnam's pepper exports increased in volume, but decreased in value (due to lower export prices) compared to 2022.
In the first 11 months of 2023, Vietnam's pepper export turnover to Europe, America and Africa decreased by 22%, 22.2% and 9.7% respectively compared to the same period in 2022. In contrast, exports to Asia and Oceania increased by 11.4% and 157.3% respectively compared to the same period in 2022.
At the end of 2023, pepper export prices in producing countries around the world fluctuated inconsistently, decreasing in Indonesia, stabilizing in Malaysia, but increasing sharply in Brazil and Vietnam.
In the domestic market, at the end of 2023, black pepper prices in the domestic market increased sharply due to speculators increasing purchases in the context of limited supply.
However, the increase in pepper prices is forecast to slow down as businesses buy in moderation for processing. At the end of the trading session on December 27, 2023, the price of black pepper in the domestic market increased from 9,500 - 12,500 VND/kg (depending on the surveyed area). The price of white pepper was at 112,000 VND/kg, much higher than the level of 93,000 VND/kg in the same period in 2022.
It is forecasted that in 2024, world pepper prices will generally be higher than in 2023. Although the world economy still has many risks, pepper output in Vietnam, Brazil, India and Indonesia is expected to decrease.
The Vietnam Pepper Association forecasts that global pepper output in the 2023/2024 crop year will decrease due to an estimated decrease in output from pepper-producing countries. Accordingly, Vietnam's pepper output in 2024 is estimated to decrease by about 10-15% to 160,000-165,000 tons; India's will decrease by 20%, Indonesia's by 20-30%, and Brazil's by 15%.
Pepper exports in 2024 are forecast to be favorable in terms of volume and price due to reduced output. Pepper inventories in 2023 transferred to 2024 will be the lowest in many years.
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