At the forum "Real estate investment in the new era: New thinking - New opportunities" held on the afternoon of July 3, Mr. Nguyen Trung Vu, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Cen Group, said that the real estate market is facing the risk of oversupply as investors rush to develop large-scale projects.
" The real estate market is likely to "explode". The market explosion will take place in another aspect, not in prices, because high prices will make it difficult for people to buy houses, but in the explosion of supply ," Mr. Vu emphasized.
Mr. Vu cited that in the past, scarce supply pushed up real estate prices. For example, the 88 Lang Ha apartment project increased in price from 40 million VND/m2 to 100 million VND/m2, or 2.5 times. But in the near future, the market will shift from lack of supply to excess supply. We will live in a period of "oversupply" of real estate, the supply will increase terribly.
Previously, projects with a scale of several hundred to thousands of hectares were "considered large-scale". But now the market has seen the emergence of many mega-cities with a scale of several thousand hectares or even 10,000 hectares, "creating a completely different game led by large investors".
Cen Group's Chairman warned that the situation of oversupply but high prices could lead to a loss of liquidity because it exceeds the payment threshold of the majority of people, making it increasingly difficult for young people to find a place to live.
" Lessons from many abandoned urban areas in China and even domestically show that many projects are built but cannot attract residents, posing potential risks to the market, " said Mr. Vu.
Mr. Vu also said that in the next 5-10 years, the business investment strategies of enterprises will change completely compared to the recent period. During the past 10 years, the market has been severely lacking in supply. But from now on, the market will enter a period of supply explosion, which is a huge change.
Sharing the same view, Dr. Le Xuan Nghia warned that in 2016, efforts to solve the problem of excess housing supply unintentionally created a paradox of a shortage of projects, pushing real estate prices up in the recent period.
However, contrary to the shortage of supply in recent years, in the current context, Mr. Nghia believes that the market will soon have "oversupply".
In addition to the risk of oversupply, Mr. Nguyen Van Dinh, Chairman of the Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS), also pointed out a prominent problem today: land prices in many localities are "inflated" to levels that are too high compared to reality. In many places, land prices in the price list are rationalized from transactions with a very large bubble. This is extremely dangerous because it reduces investment attractiveness and makes it difficult for those in need to access.
The internal strength of real estate enterprises is still weak, especially small and medium enterprises. Many units have revealed many problems, even collapsed when incidents occurred. Meanwhile, enterprises that have overcome the recent difficult period are thanks to preparing resources and strategies for many years.
" The formation of megacities of tens of thousands of hectares cannot rely solely on small businesses. We need large businesses to lead, and small and medium-sized businesses must accompany us to gradually build internal strength ," Mr. Dinh added.
Another problem is the limited quality of the capital market. When the crisis occurred, credit was congested, and businesses lacked long-term capital mobilization channels, so they fell into a liquidity crisis and plummeted very quickly.
To avoid repeating the "bubble - collapse" spiral, experts say it is necessary to increase transparency control, especially requiring transactions through exchanges to minimize speculation and price inflation.
" Good control but still have to create conditions. If done half-heartedly, the market will always lack transparency and be easily manipulated, " Mr. Dinh emphasized.
Source: https://baolangson.vn/thi-truong-bat-dong-san-nhieu-kha-nang-se-bung-no-5052213.html
Comment (0)