USD exchange rate today (July 7): USD will likely continue to...

USD exchange rate today: Early morning of July 7, the State Bank announced the central exchange rate of the Vietnamese Dong to the USD remains unchanged, currently at 25,116 VND.

The USD Index (DXY), which measures the greenback's performance against a basket of six major currencies, stood at 96.99.

Chart of DXY Index fluctuations over the past week. Photo: Marketwatch

Forecast of USD trend this week

The DXY index fell 0.2% last week, hovering around 96.8-97.0, marking its second consecutive weekly decline. The main reason was growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would soon cut interest rates amid rising domestic economic pressures and signs of cooling inflation. The Fed's pivot to a dovish monetary policy has reduced the attractiveness of the USD in the eyes of global investors.

In addition to currency factors, fiscal risks also play a role. Markets are concerned that the Trump administration's tax cuts and spending increases could push the US budget deficit far beyond forecasts and even push the public debt beyond sustainable levels. Rapid spending without additional revenue has investors questioning the US's long-term fiscal outlook, thereby undermining confidence in the greenback.

In addition, the international trade situation also contributed to increasing pressure on the USD. The risk of trade tensions erupting when the US government threatens to impose new tariffs on July 9 also makes the market unstable, increasing the demand for safe-haven assets such as gold, EUR and Japanese Yen. These currencies all increased in price during the week, pulling the DXY index to its lowest level in more than three years.

Although the US jobs report released over the weekend showed that the number of new jobs reached 147,000, exceeding market expectations, the figure was not strong enough to reverse the downward trend of the USD. Pressure from monetary easing expectations, fiscal concerns and trade risks still prevail.

The USD is expected to continue to be under downward pressure next week, as the market continues to closely monitor developments related to the Fed's monetary policy, the domestic fiscal situation and international trade concerns. Analysts believe that the Fed will likely move closer to a decision to cut interest rates, especially when inflation shows signs of cooling and economic growth slows. If the Fed signals a more dovish tone in upcoming speeches, the USD will likely continue to weaken.

The USD is likely to continue to weaken. Photo: cafef.vn

Domestic USD exchange rate today

In the domestic market, at the beginning of the trading session on July 7, the State Bank announced the central exchange rate of the Vietnamese Dong to the USD at 25,116 VND.

* The reference USD exchange rate at the State Bank's buying and selling exchange center remains unchanged, currently at: 23,911 VND - 26,321 VND.

USD exchange rates at commercial banks are as follows: