TPO - Updating the economic growth scenario this year, the Institute for Economic and Policy Research said that the gross domestic product (GDP) for the whole year could reach the 7% growth rate as targeted by the Government. However, the agency also noted some risks in the fourth quarter regarding growth structure, low market demand...
Today (October 15), the Vietnam Institute for Economic and Policy Research (VEPR) released its third quarter economic report, updating two growth scenarios for the fourth quarter and the entire year.
In the high scenario, fourth quarter growth will be flat at 7.4%, with full-year growth expected to reach the new target of 7% set by the Government .
In the low scenario, fourth quarter growth is below 7%, GDP fluctuates around 6.84%.
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Vietnam's forecasted/actual growth rate over the years, and VEPR's forecast of two growth scenarios this year. |
Overviewing the current economic picture, Dr. Nguyen Quoc Viet - Deputy Director of VEPR - commented that GDP growth after 9 months reached 6.82%, 1.5 times higher than the period last year, with contributions mainly from the industrial and service sectors. On the aggregate demand side, trade is on the recovery path, positive foreign direct investment (FDI) flows are the main growth drivers. Trade surplus reached 20.8 billion USD - a high level in the period 2020 - 2024.
Budget revenue exceeded the plan while public spending decreased compared to the same period in 2023, leading to a continued high budget surplus, creating room for fiscal policies, tax exemptions, extensions, and reductions, especially in the context of industries and sectors suffering damage from Typhoon Yagi .
The USD exchange rate at domestic commercial banks has continuously decreased. The growth rate of money supply and credit growth has recovered quite well, contributing positively to promoting growth and investment although it is still lower than the average before the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Dr. Nguyen Quoc Viet - Deputy Director of VEPR. |
“The economy has many positive bright spots, but there are still risks and challenges ahead,” Mr. Viet commented.
According to Mr. Viet, the purchasing managers index (PMI) declined, falling below 50 points in September. The rate of businesses withdrawing compared to businesses entering the market remains high. Domestic consumption and public investment disbursement have not met expectations.
According to economist Pham Chi Lan, growth in the third quarter still relies on exports and the "hands" of FDI enterprises. For many years, domestic consumption and investment have not created significant momentum for growth.
In addition, the business environment still has many potential risks, barriers in business conditions and administrative procedures are on the rise, due to the weakening reform momentum from ministries and branches. Data on the business sector also reflects this situation. In the past 9 months, the number of businesses withdrawing from the market has remained high, with 163.7 thousand businesses ceasing operations, a sharp increase from 2020.
Source: https://tienphong.vn/kich-ban-moi-nhat-ve-tang-truong-kinh-te-nam-nay-post1682568.tpo
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