Gold prices rise again
During the week of June 30-July 4, world gold prices recovered slightly, increasing by about 50 USD (1.5%), closing at 3,337 USD/ounce in the early morning of July 5.
The world gold price increased slightly in the first week of July mainly due to the weakening of the USD, the DXY index fell from 97.25 points to below 97 points. At the same time, signals of geopolitical and economic instability, especially the announcement by US President Donald Trump on unilaterally imposing reciprocal tariffs on many countries from July 9, have strengthened the safe haven role of gold. The risk of escalating trade war is considered a factor supporting gold prices.
In addition, the super law “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (3B), with large tax cuts and defense spending, could stimulate inflation, weaken the US dollar and support gold prices. These factors motivated spot gold prices to increase by nearly $11 in the final session of the week.
Domestically, the price of SJC gold bars increased by about 1.4 million VND/tael for buying this week. The price of gold rings increased by about 700,000 VND/tael for buying.
The USD/VND exchange rate increased from 26,270 to 26,350 VND/USD, with the peak of the week (also a record high) reaching 26,345 VND/USD, also contributing to pushing domestic gold prices up following world prices.
In the new week (July 7-11), world gold prices are forecast to continue to increase, but the outlook is not consistent among investor groups.
Wall Street experts and major investors were mixed, with 36% of analysts predicting gold prices to rise, 28% predicting a fall and 36% predicting a sideways trend. Meanwhile, Main Street retail investors were more optimistic, with 59% expecting gold prices to rise due to concerns about U.S. debt and inflation.
The 3B bill, with its massive tax cuts and defense spending, could spur inflation, weaken the dollar and support gold prices.
SJC gold faces risk of deep decline
However, Republicans and the White House have pushed back against negative projections on the debt, arguing that tax revenues and economic growth will offset the deficit. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and House Speaker Mike Johnson have highlighted the benefits of income tax cuts and welfare reform, which are expected to boost the U.S. economy. If these policies stimulate growth without causing strong inflation, gold prices could come under pressure.
In addition, since the beginning of 2025, the world gold price has increased by about 27%, an impressive increase and raising concerns about the possibility of profit taking. With the current price around 3,337 USD/ounce, gold is trading near its historical peak after 2 years of boom, causing some investors to consider shifting their money to other assets such as US stocks, bonds, silver, or cryptocurrencies.
US stocks are at record highs, buoyed by expectations of strong economic growth and the Trump administration’s stimulus policies. On July 2, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both hit new records after the US and Vietnam reached a trade deal. However, if inflation rises due to tariffs and government spending, gold will remain an attractive haven.
Strong jobs data and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy are also key factors. A rate cut by the Fed in July or September could boost inflation and support gold, but strong economic growth will draw money into stocks, putting downward pressure on gold.
The Middle East has become more stable after the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, reducing the demand for safe-haven gold. However, trade risks from Mr. Trump's tariff policies, especially with Japan and other countries, are still a factor supporting gold.
In fact, these factors tend to cancel each other out, causing gold prices to fluctuate within a narrowing range, around the threshold of 3,320-3,350 USD/ounce over the past 5 weeks.
Domestically, gold prices are influenced by world gold prices and many other factors, including the USD/VND exchange rate and policies on the gold market. The proposal to amend Decree 24 of the State Bank in the direction of removing the monopoly and allowing banks and enterprises to import gold according to quotas... is expected to be completed and submitted to the Government before July 15, which could have a strong impact on the gold market.
If the gap between domestic and international gold prices narrows from VND13-14 million to VND5 million/tael, in the context of falling world prices, SJC gold bars may plummet. However, fluctuations also depend on increased supply and whether people will increase their gold sales.
According to the forecast of most experts and investors, the world gold price in the week of July 7-11 may increase slightly due to concerns about inflation and trade instability, but the risk of profit taking and cash flow shifting to stocks may limit the increase. Domestically, SJC gold bars in the medium term will face major fluctuations if supply increases after the amendment of Decree 24.
Source: https://vietnamnet.vn/gia-vang-truoc-dien-bien-moi-du-bao-vang-mieng-sjc-sap-toi-ra-sao-2418761.html
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