Health Minister warns of worrying record

This is no longer a purely technical figure in the field of population and health . Behind it is a warning about the risk of collapse of the traditional family structure, when more and more young people cannot "settle down", leading to delaying or refusing to get married and have children. A "generation of 3 No's" is quietly forming: No home - No marriage - No children.

Fertility rate plummets

Experience from many countries shows that once fertility rates have fallen sharply, they are very difficult to recover, even with the application of incentive policies. Japan currently has a TFR of 1.26; South Korea has only 0.78; the OECD average is 1.5 – far below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.

Vietnam – once a country with a high birth rate – is now rapidly moving towards a “childless society”. The risk of falling into the trap of “aging before getting rich” is more evident than ever.

Vietnam is rapidly moving towards a "child-less society". Photo: Hoang Ha

House prices – the silent cause

It is undeniable that skyrocketing housing prices are contributing greatly to the decline in birth rates. In large cities like Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, housing is beyond the reach of young people.

A 28-year-old IT engineer in Hanoi shared that after 5 years of working with a fairly high income, he still does not dare to think about getting married because a small apartment costs 2-3 billion VND. Meanwhile, the monthly income of most young people is still at 15-20 million VND.

Housing prices have increased 3-5 times in just a few years, but salaries have remained stagnant. A 50m² apartment in Long Bien is currently priced at VND5.9 billion – equivalent to VND118 million/m² – an unrealistic figure for any young person without financial support from their family.

Many young people are giving up on their dream of starting a family. Many choose to live alone, work freelance, and enjoy personal experiences. It’s not that they don’t want a home, but rather that they no longer believe they can have a stable life with their current income.

62% of young people surveyed by a press agency said they delayed marriage for financial reasons, with housing being the biggest concern. What was once recorded in Korea, Japan, China… is now starting to appear in Vietnam.

Population aging: The undercurrent

Since 2011, Vietnam has entered the aging population phase. By 2024, the country will have about 14.2 million people aged 60 and over. This number is forecast to reach 18 million by 2030, accounting for 25% of the population.

Combined with a sharply decreasing birth rate, Vietnam is facing the following consequences: Declining labor productivity; lack of resources contributing to insurance and health care; increased budget pressure for elderly care; burden on the next generation...

Not stopping there, the average life expectancy of Vietnamese people is currently 74.7 years, but the number of healthy years is only about 65 years. A society where the elderly live long but are not healthy, and the young do not want to have children - that is the recipe for a long-term, silent and persistent crisis.

When young people lose faith in the future

Many young people admit: "If we can't buy a house, how can we dare to have children?" or "Renting a house costs half our salary, how can we raise children?"

The rising cost of raising children – which can be as high as VND15 million per month in big cities – has caused many young couples to hesitate. Some get married but decide not to have children, or have only one child and send it back to the countryside for grandparents to raise.

Many young people are abandoning the “work hard to buy a house” lifestyle and switching to a lighter lifestyle: spending on accessible things like phones, travel , and personal experiences. They are not “lazy”, they just have lost hope in the ability to build a real home.

Socio-economic consequences: Cannot be ignored

Without timely policy action, Vietnam will face a dangerous spiral:

Rising house prices → Young people not getting married/having children → Rapidly aging population → Shortage of young workers → Increasing welfare costs → Slowing growth → Social instability.

The solution cannot be delayed.

It is time to look directly at the problem and take drastic action. We cannot just call for “having two children”, but must fundamentally solve the housing problem – the core motivation for young people to settle down, find a job and have children.

Some solutions that need to be prioritized: Strongly increase the supply of social housing, giving priority to young people and newlyweds; Impose high taxes on speculation and abandoned houses; Transparent planning, reducing the cost of developing affordable housing; Substantial credit support for first-time home buyers; Practical child-rearing policies, not just symbolic incentives...

We are in a “demographic dividend” period, with an abundant workforce. But if young people no longer believe they can live a stable life, own a home and raise children, the demographic dividend will also sink into the silent tragedy of a generation that cannot continue.

Housing policy is not just an economic issue, but a condition for a nation’s future survival. Vietnam cannot hope for a sustainable future if those who shoulder that future no longer have the motivation to survive.

Vietnamnet.vn

Source: https://vietnamnet.vn/loi-canh-bao-cua-bo-truong-y-te-ve-mot-ky-luc-dang-lo-2423344.html