Low temperature, electricity demand does not increase as expected

Electricity supply in the first 6 months of the year is guaranteed. Photo: EVN

According to Mr. Pham Nguyen Hung, Director of the Electricity Department ( Ministry of Industry and Trade ), because the national temperature is lower than the same period last year, the load demand does not increase as high as forecasted at the beginning of the year.

In 6 months, the largest consumption capacity of the national power system reached 51,672 MW recorded on June 2, 5.7% higher than the same period in 2024 (in the North alone, the largest consumption capacity increased by 2,632 MW to 26,495 MW).

In Hanoi , at 2:00 p.m. on June 2, the load reached 5,558 MW, the highest level ever, up 56% over the same period last year. This is a record increase.

Electricity supply in the first 6 months of 2025 meets the needs of socio -economic development thanks to detailed preparation from planning for the whole year, each quarter and for the dry season, and monthly updates and adjustments.

According to the updated report of the National Electricity System and Market Operation Company Limited (NSMO), the total electricity production and import output in 2025 is estimated to reach 331.4 billion kWh, an increase of 7.39% compared to 2024, estimated to reach 95.4% compared to the 2025 plan.

However, to ensure electricity supply, the national power system still needs to mobilize oil-fired thermal power sources and LNG sources to meet load demand, especially during peak evening hours in the Southern region when solar power is not generated.

Regarding the electricity supply plan for 2026, With the goal of high economic growth, the demand for electricity of businesses, people and the whole economy will be very large.

To ensure sufficient electricity supply for socio-economic development with an average GDP growth rate of about 10%/year in the 2026-2030 period and about 7.5%/year in the 2031-2050 period, the adjusted Power Plan VIII sets the target of commercial electricity in 2030 to reach about 500.4-557.8 billion kWh, with a target of about 1,237.7-1,375.1 billion kWh in 2050; the maximum capacity in 2030 will be about 89,655-99,934 MW and in 2050 will reach about 205,732-228,570 MW.

Therefore, specific scenarios for electricity demand growth in 2026 have been developed. The baseline scenario for electricity growth is 10-12%, corresponding to a GDP growth scenario of about 6.5-7% and normal weather conditions.

High scenario, electricity growth of 13-14%, corresponding to GDP growth scenario higher than 7% and prolonged heat waves.

Extreme scenario, electricity growth above 15%, corresponding to breakthrough economic growth targets and widespread extreme weather events.

Source: https://hanoimoi.vn/nen-nhet-do-thap-nhu-cau-phu-tai-dien-khong-tang-cao-nhu-du-bao-706643.html