Gasoline prices may drop sharply from the afternoon of July 3, 2025

The Vietnam Petroleum Institute (VPI) announced its forecast for retail gasoline prices for the operating period on the afternoon of July 3, 2025. According to the forecast model using machine learning technology, domestic gasoline prices are likely to decrease sharply, ranging from 6.8% to 7.5%, bringing benefits to consumers.

Detailed forecast of gasoline prices

E5 RON 92 gasoline : Decreased by VND 1,412/liter, equivalent to 6.9%, to VND 19,118/liter.
RON 95-III gasoline : Decreased by VND 1,440/liter, equivalent to 6.8%, to VND 19,670/liter.
Kerosene : Down 7.5%, to 17,631 VND/liter.
Diesel : Down 7.1%, to 17,977 VND/liter.
Fuel oil : Down 7.2%, to 15,730 VND/kg.

Mr. Doan Tien Quyet, data analysis expert of VPI, said that the forecasting model is based on artificial neural networks (ANN) and supervised learning algorithms, combining data on world oil prices, exchange rates, domestic tax policies and macroeconomic factors.

Assuming that the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Trade do not use the Price Stabilization Fund, the above price reduction is considered completely feasible.

From July 1, 2025, according to Resolution 204/2025/QH15 of the National Assembly , the value added tax (VAT) on gasoline has been reduced from 10% to 8%. This is an important factor contributing to the reduction in domestic gasoline retail prices during this management period, bringing direct benefits to consumers.

World oil price trends

In the international market, oil prices tended to increase slightly in early July 2025, mainly due to expectations of improved demand and attention towards the meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC +) scheduled to take place on July 6, 2025 to decide on production for August 2025.

At the close of trading on July 1, 2025, Brent crude oil prices increased by 0.6% to 67.11 USD/barrel, while WTI crude oil prices increased by 0.5% to 65.45 USD/barrel. However, the increase was limited by concerns that OPEC+ may loosen quotas, increasing global supply.

Expert Alex Hodes from StoneX commented that OPEC+ will likely agree to increase production by 411,000 barrels/day in August 2025 to compete for market share, especially with the US shale oil production group.

Data from July 1, 2025 showed that US shale oil production hit a record in April 2025, signaling increasingly fierce competition.

Source: https://baonghean.vn/gia-xang-dau-co-the-giam-manh-tu-chieu-ngay-3-7-2025-10301432.html