Experts are hesitant, small investors lose confidence
The expert survey results showed a notable change when 15 Wall Street experts participated, with only 1 person holding a bearish view. Specifically, 7 experts (47%) predicted prices to increase, 1 person (7%) said prices to decrease, and the remaining 7 (47%) expected prices to remain flat.
Meanwhile, an online poll of 231 retail investors found that the bullish majority has narrowed significantly, with only 104 (45%) predicting a rise, 63 (27%) expecting a fall, and 64 (28%) expecting a further correction in the coming week.
"Gold fell on Monday and Tuesday but ended the week with three consecutive days of gains. US tariffs appear to have helped the precious metal recover. However, it remains unclear whether the correction after hitting a record high near $3,500 is over," said Marc Chandler, CEO of Bannockburn Global Forex.
Chandler said the current correction has a high of around $3,422 and a low of around $3,275. “US CPI data on Tuesday and the EU tariff announcement could help clarify the direction of the market. Few are actually bearish on gold, it’s more about timing than direction at the moment,” he added.
Darin Newsom, senior analyst at Barchart.com, expressed optimism: "I don't even need to look at the charts or the news anymore. As long as the situation in the US remains the way it is, gold will continue to be seen as a safe haven asset, especially heading into the weekend."
James Stanley, market strategist at Forex.com, agrees: "The anti-fiat sentiment is strong, and gold is currently lagging Bitcoin and Silver in the short term. I see this as an anomaly rather than a bad sign. The past two weeks have seen a strong reaction in gold after hitting support. Longer term, I believe gold will continue to rise as it has over the past 17 months."
Gold Price Outlook Next Week: Waiting for Important Economic Data
After a relatively quiet holiday week, the market enters the new week with a series of important economic data that could impact gold prices. Most notably, the June consumer price index (CPI) report will be released on Tuesday, along with the Empire State manufacturing survey.
Next up is the producer price index (PPI) on Wednesday. On Thursday, the market will turn its attention to retail sales, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey and weekly jobless claims. The week will close with housing starts and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey on Friday.
Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, predicts that gold prices could rise in the near term. He points out that gold has been trading in a narrow range for the past 12 weeks, with support at its 50-day moving average. The main driver of the recent rally has been a recovery in risk sentiment in the market, which has pushed down long-term government bond yields.
However, Kuptsikevich also expressed concern about the strengthening of the US dollar, which could put downward pressure on the precious metal. Minutes from the June FOMC meeting supported gold, revealing that two members were ready to vote for monetary policy easing as early as July. Dovish members focused on a cooling labor market and no signs of accelerating inflation.
According to Kuptsikevich, the chances of gold breaking out of the current price range of $3,250-$3,450 are quite low. Despite being supported by strong central bank buying and high levels of uncertainty, the rapid rise in 2022-2025 will make gold overbought.
A move above the $3,370-$3,400 range next week would be a key signal for a strong rally that could push prices to new record highs. However, if gold continues to fluctuate in the $3,300-$3,350 range, it will remain in a consolidation mode and increase the risk of a decline.
New week 7/14 - 7/20: When is the most favorable time to buy gold?
Analysts at CPM Group issued a buy recommendation on gold on Thursday with an initial price target of $3,375 by August 1. They said gold is in a correction phase after recovering to $3,376 on July 3.
CPM Group believes that many investors are choosing to stay out of the market to wait for more clarity on the political and economic situation. This is a seasonally weak period for gold demand and prices, along with unpredictable fluctuations from the US government, causing financial markets to shift to a wait-and-see mode.
However, in the long term, CPM Group still expects gold prices to rise higher. They forecast that the possibility of gold returning to $3,375 in the rest of July is entirely possible. Even the short-term target of $3,425 is possible, although it may not appear this July.
At the time of reporting, spot gold was trading at $3,357.95 an ounce, up 0.07% on the day and 0.65% from the start of the week. Analysts say gold is in a major uptrend with many positive technical signals, although it is still necessary to monitor macro factors that may impact the market.
Source: https://baonghean.vn/du-bao-gia-vang-tuan-moi-14-7-20-7-chuyen-gia-phan-van-nha-dau-tu-nho-mat-niem-tin-10302167.html
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