Responding to the press conference after announcing the socio-economic situation in the second quarter and the first 6 months of 2025, Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong, Director of the General Statistics Office ( Ministry of Finance ) said that in the first 6 months of the year, the GDP growth result of 7.52% was close to the growth scenario target updated in the first quarter. This will reduce pressure on the following quarters and is a positive foundation for growth in the whole year of 2025.
"However, this is only a necessary condition for the 8% growth target. To realize this target, in the last 6 months of the year, we need to maximize growth potential and implement synchronous, flexible and timely solutions and economic development policies," said Ms. Huong.
The General Statistics Office forecasts that economic growth for the whole year may reach the set target of 8%. (Illustration photo)
According to the assessment of the General Statistics Office, the economic growth potential in the following quarters can be mentioned as follows:
Public investment will be an important driving force for economic growth in the last 6 months of the year. Policies and solutions to promote disbursement of public investment capital are being vigorously implemented by the Government , ministries, and localities towards the goal of disbursing 100% of public investment capital, which will create room for growth in the last 6 months of the year. National key infrastructure projects such as highways, airports, large urban belt projects, energy projects, etc. are being promoted.
In addition, the credit growth target of 16% will create huge room for economic growth, mainly through providing abundant capital to stimulate production and business, promote investment and consumption throughout society.
In addition, consumption is supported by policies to reduce VAT by 2%, effective from July 1, on many goods, and trade policies to stimulate domestic consumption. The support under Decree 178 will contribute to promoting consumption, investment, and asset accumulation, thereby promoting economic growth.
From the growth potential, the General Statistics Office updated the economic growth scenario for 2025 as follows: the first 6 months of the year increased by 7.52%, the last 6 months of the year increased by 8.42%, the whole year increased by 8% (of which the first quarter increased by 7.05%, the third quarter increased by 7.96%, the third quarter increased by 8.33%, the fourth quarter increased by 8.51%).
Challenges to overcome
However, the General Statistics Office also mentioned growth challenges in the last 6 months of the year and solutions that need to be focused on to achieve the annual growth target.
Many challenges lie ahead for Vietnamese businesses. (Illustration photo)
Accordingly, geopolitical conflicts between countries are increasingly tense, unstable and unpredictable, which will be a major source of risk for the global economy, affecting trade, investment, supply chains and commodity prices. Thereby, it will indirectly affect Vietnam's production and export activities.
On the other hand, the fluctuation in the exchange rate will put pressure on the cost of importing raw materials and paying off domestic foreign currency debt. International interest rates remain high, forcing Vietnam to balance its monetary policy more cautiously, reducing room for easing.
The US President's reciprocal tax policy will put great pressure on Vietnam's production and export activities in the coming months.
Domestically, industrial production has not recovered steadily. Although industrial growth has shown signs of recovery, it is still slow and uneven. Some industries such as electronics, textiles, footwear, wood processing, etc. still recorded high growth but are starting to show signs of slowing down due to stagnant orders and price competition from other countries.
The disbursement of public investment capital still has many bottlenecks due to land clearance problems, overlapping legal procedures and limited project implementation capacity at the local level.
Domestic consumption has recovered but not strongly, and there is still a cautious mentality. People tend to change their consumption habits due to concerns about inflation, and income has recovered but is not stable. Spending on total retail sales and consumer services, although positive, is not strong enough to create a driving force that spreads to the entire economy.
Cheap labor is no longer a national advantage; there is a lack of skilled labor to keep up with modern technology; the labor force is uneven; there is a lack of high-quality labor;
The economy's ability to absorb capital is still weak, especially for domestic enterprises; the capital market and stock market have not yet developed commensurate with their potential, increasing pressure on the monetary market.
Therefore, according to the General Statistics Office, it is necessary to continue maintaining a stable macro environment, creating confidence for investors and people.
It is necessary to operate monetary policy cautiously and flexibly, ensuring inflation control within the set target (below 4.5%). Stabilize exchange rates, ensure liquidity of the banking system.
In particular, promoting disbursement and efficiency of public investment is the most important driving force and needs to continue to be given top priority. " It is necessary to resolutely remove all bottlenecks in administrative procedures, site clearance, and construction material sources to speed up the construction progress of projects, especially key transport infrastructure projects of the country. Ensure maximum disbursement towards the goal of disbursing 100% of public investment capital as requested by the Prime Minister ," the General Statistics Office emphasized.
In addition, it is necessary to fully exploit opportunities from Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) that have come into effect (EVFTA, CPTPP, RCEP) to enhance trade promotion, seek and expand new markets, and diversify export products. Continue to maintain double-digit export growth to contribute greatly to GDP growth.
Source: https://vtcnews.vn/cuc-thong-ke-du-bao-tang-truong-kinh-te-ca-nam-dat-muc-tieu-8-ar952847.html
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