What are the chances for U.23 Malaysia?
The second match of Group A of the 2025 Southeast Asian U.23 Championship has ended with predictable developments. U.23 Malaysia won 7-1 against U.23 Brunei to keep their hopes of advancing, while U.23 Indonesia, despite many difficulties, also beat U.23 Philippines 1-0 to defend the top spot in the group.
After two matches, U.23 Indonesia leads with 6 points (won U.23 Philippines 1-0 and U.23 Brunei 8-0). U.23 Philippines is second with 3 points (won U.23 Malaysia 2-0 and lost U.23 Indonesia 0-1). U.23 Malaysia is third with 3 points (won U.23 Brunei 7-1 and lost U.23 Philippines 0-2). U.23 Brunei is last with 0 points.
Group A rankings after 2 matches
SCREENSHOT
The race to the semi-finals is still open, as all three teams U.23 Malaysia, U.23 Indonesia and U.23 Philippines still have a chance. In this tournament, 4 semi-final tickets will be awarded to the 3 teams that win Group A, B and C, along with the second-placed team with the best record (the second-placed team in Group A will have its record deducted from the last-placed team). Therefore, the goal of U.23 Malaysia is to win first place, or if they finish second, they must have at least 6 points to create a competitive advantage over the other second-placed teams.
If in the final match, U.23 Philippines wins U.23 Brunei, and U.23 Malaysia wins U.23 Indonesia, the three teams will have 6 points. At this time, the direct confrontation coefficient will be considered.
Currently in the head-to-head rankings between the three teams, U.23 Indonesia is in the lead with 3 points after 1 match (goal difference +1), U.23 Philippines is in second place with 3 points after 2 matches (goal difference +1), and U.23 Malaysia is in the bottom with 0 points after 1 match (goal difference -2).
To keep their hopes of advancing, U.23 Malaysia must beat U.23 Indonesia by 2 goals or more. Then, U.23 Malaysia will surpass their opponents in terms of head-to-head goal difference (same points, but better goal difference in direct confrontations between the three teams). If they win by exactly 2 goals, U.23 Malaysia will finish second in the group and wait for the goal difference with the other second-placed teams to determine the semi-final ticket. If they win by 3 goals or more, the "Tigers" will finish first in the group and will definitely enter the semi-finals.
If they only beat the host U.23 Indonesia by 1 goal, U.23 Malaysia must wait for U.23 Philippines to draw or lose to U.23 Brunei to be able to take second place. However, this possibility is unlikely, as U.23 Brunei is too weak (scored 1 goal, conceded 15 goals after the first 2 matches). U.23 Philippines is very likely to win big against the bottom team U.23 Brunei. Therefore, U.23 Malaysia must beat U.23 Indonesia by 2 goals or more to keep their hopes of reaching the semi-finals alive. This is the only way.
The winners of groups A, B and C will win tickets to the semi-finals of the 2025 Southeast Asian U.23 Championship. In groups B and C, U.23 Vietnam and U.23 Thailand are likely to advance due to their superiority over the remaining opponents in the group.
Source: https://thanhnien.vn/u23-malaysia-con-co-hoi-danh-bai-u23-indonesia-de-vao-ban-ket-neu-185250719080244648.htm
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