Responding to VTC News Electronic Newspaper on the morning of July 12, economic expert and doctor Nguyen Tri Hieu said that the trend of gold prices in the world and Vietnam will continue to increase from now until the end of the year.
Gold prices may surpass the peak
With the current market fluctuations, Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu said that from now until the end of 2025, the world and domestic gold prices will increase very high due to 4 main reasons. Firstly, the USD, if measured by the USD Index, is at a low level and the value of the USD is decreasing compared to other currencies.
Second, the US tariff issue has put many countries in crisis and is still a hot spot.
Third, the geopolitical issue between Ukraine and the Middle East remains complicated.
Fourth, the US economy is facing many uncertainties. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has not yet decided to lower interest rates because they are worried that the tariff issue will increase inflation.
“All of these factors have pushed the world gold price up, although at times the gold price has decreased, but that is only temporary because investors are taking profits. The general trend is that the gold price will continue to increase and may reach 3,700 USD/ounce from now until the end of the year, while the domestic gold price may exceed 130 million VND/tael,” expert Nguyen Tri Hieu predicted.
Commenting on the gold price, Mr. Nguyen Quang Huy, CEO of the Faculty of Finance and Banking, Nguyen Trai University, said that in recent days, the world gold price has exceeded the mark of 3,370 USD/ounce, the highest level of all time.
Domestically, SJC gold has jumped to around 118 - 121 million VND/tael. Mr. Huy commented that in the coming time, the world gold price will continue to increase and conquer a new peak, possibly at the mark of 3,600 - 3,700 USD/ounce, causing the domestic gold price to possibly exceed the mark of 130 million VND/tael.
Expert Nguyen Quang Huy also pointed out four reasons for the sharp increase in gold prices. Firstly, the market is betting heavily on the possibility that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in September, putting downward pressure on the USD and bond yields. This makes gold – a non-yielding asset – extremely attractive.
Second, global geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel-Iran conflict, potential instability in East Asia and territorial disputes... are triggering safe-haven demand for gold.
Third, central banks continue to buy gold. China, Russia, Türkiye, etc. continue to buy gold monthly as a way to reduce dependence on the US dollar and increase strategic reserves.
Fourth, defensive sentiment and asset shifting as uncertainty increases, the sentiment of investing in gold as a defensive asset is making a strong comeback, replacing digital currencies, stocks or real estate.
“This is no longer a normal volatility, but a clear manifestation of a period of major movement in the global financial system and in investors' asset allocation strategies,” Mr. Huy said.
What should investors do?
Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu said that, in recent times, gold has brought the highest profits among investment channels, up to this point.
“Investing in gold has been a profitable channel in recent times, but it also carries many potential risks for the gold market. Therefore, investing in gold in a short period of time to buy and sell for profit requires extreme caution.
If you buy gold, you should buy it for long-term investment, but if you invest short-term or for surfing, you should not. Especially at this time, investors should not borrow money to invest in gold because it is both risky and creates a huge debt burden. Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu said.
Expert Nguyen Quang Huy said that, with the domestic gold price being too far apart from the world price, the Government is studying the possibility of allowing the establishment of a gold exchange to increase transparency, competition and bring the Vietnamese gold price closer to the world price.
“This will be a major turning point to help regulate the market effectively, reduce speculation and protect genuine investors,” Mr. Huy commented.
Regarding investment strategy, this expert said, gold is only a small part, investing in gold is not a way to get rich quickly, but a risk hedging tool.
“The gold price is reflecting the global sentiment, but it is not the only place where you should place your financial expectations. In a fast-changing world, the winner is not the one who holds the most assets, but the one who understands the market and knows what he is doing to create the most good values for society. Therefore, investors should not ‘go all in’ on gold when the price has peaked, especially with SJC gold, a gold product with a very large price difference,” Expert Nguyen Quang Huy said.
The spot gold price on the world market stood at 3,355.31 USD/ounce, up 41.93 USD/ounce compared to the previous trading session. This increase is equivalent to 1.27%, bringing the gold price to its highest level in the past week. Domestically, as of 6:30 a.m. on July 12, the price of SJC gold bars in the domestic market increased by 200,000 VND/tael compared to the previous session. Specifically, Saigon Jewelry Company (SJC) listed the buying price at 119 million VND/tael, the selling price at 121 million VND/tael, an increase of 200,000 VND/tael in both directions. DOJI Group also adjusted the buying and selling price of SJC gold bars to 119 - 121 million VND/tael, similar to the adjustment at SJC, an increase of 200,000 VND/tael compared to yesterday's session. Bao Tin Minh Chau kept the same listed price as SJC and DOJI, with buying and selling prices of 119 - 121 million VND/tael, an increase of 200,000 VND/tael in both directions. Phu Quy Gold and Gemstone Group has a slightly lower buying price of VND118.3 million/tael, but the selling price remains at VND121 million/tael. The increase during the day is also VND200,000/tael for both buying and selling. | |
Source: https://baolangson.vn/gia-vang-trong-nuoc-co-the-can-moc-130-trieu-dong-luong-5053013.html
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