What does Vietnam need to do to become a high-income economy by 2045?
Báo Dân trí•28/11/2024
(Dan Tri) - According to the World Bank, to become a high-income economy by 2045, Vietnam needs to improve its position in the global value chain and invest heavily in technology, skills and innovation.
The World Bank has released the report "Vietnam 2045: Enhancing Trade in a Changing World - Pathway to a High-Income Future" and outlined a roadmap to help Vietnam improve its position in the global value chain, aiming to become a high-income country by 2045. According to the World Bank, over the past 40 years, global integration has been the main driving force behind Vietnam's successful development, creating one of the longest and fastest economic growth periods in modern history. Currently, Vietnam is one of the most open economies in the world, with about 50% of GDP and employment directly or indirectly dependent on exports. Building on its success, Vietnam has set an ambitious goal of becoming a modern, high-income economy by 2045. This requires maintaining an average annual GDP per capita growth rate of about 6% over the next two decades. The success of this goal depends on moving up the global value chain through strong investment in technology, skills and innovation. However, the challenge is that Vietnam must make this transition in the context of profound changes in global trade. Global trade plays an important role in Vietnam's economy (Graph: World Bank). Ms. Manuela Ferro, World Bank Vice President for East Asia and Pacific , emphasized that to maintain rapid growth, Vietnam needs to shift from engaging in labor-intensive , low-value-added final assembly to developing higher-value-added manufacturing and services. According to her, in the context of changing global trade and increasing uncertainty, diversifying trade and investment partnerships will be essential to build resilience and ensure long-term success. According to the World Bank, to deepen trade integration, Vietnam needs to focus on exploiting existing trade agreements such as CPTPP, RCEP; reducing non-tariff barriers, liberalizing trade in services, promoting regional connectivity; developing digital trade and improving border management. The World Bank also recommends that Vietnam increase the connection between foreign and domestic enterprises to improve productivity and create domestic value added; implement supply chain finance mechanisms and supplier development programs. In addition, Vietnam needs to increase export serviceization, reduce dependence on low-value processing and assembly. It is necessary to lower investment barriers in telecommunications, financial and transport services, promote innovation and use modern technology. According to the World Bank, Vietnam's current export-led growth model, although a driving force for previous success, still relies mainly on labor-intensive final processing with relatively low added value, not enough to bring about the labor productivity growth rate needed to achieve that goal. "The experience of Japan, South Korea, Singapore and China shows that Vietnam needs to continue to improve its position in the value chain, shifting to higher value-added services and manufacturing sectors, by improving technology, skills and innovation," World Bank experts suggested. Vietnam also needs to invest in highereducation , technical training and skills development. This includes encouraging training in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) and scientific and technological research. Vietnam needs to reform its education system to meet the real needs of businesses and the labor market. In addition, the World Bank recommends that Vietnam shift to producing and exporting environmentally friendly products, investing in clean energy infrastructure and increasing resilience to climate change, pricing carbon and encouraging the adoption of green technology.
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