USD exchange rate today (June 30): USD is leaning towards the trend...

The USD Index (DXY), which measures the greenback's performance against six major currencies, stood at 97.25.

Forecast of USD trend this week

The DXY index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies, fell nearly 2% last week and closed above 98. The decline was largely driven by President Trump’s tough trade policies and statements, including his push for higher tariffs on goods from the European Union and his criticism of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

President Trump’s policies are raising concerns about the negative impact on global trade and world economic growth. These concerns have prompted investors to sell off the USD, putting a lot of pressure on the currency. In the coming week, if trade war fears continue to increase, the DXY index is likely to maintain its downtrend, with the next targets below 97 and even 96 – a strong long-term support level.

Chart of DXY Index fluctuations over the past week. Photo: Marketwatch

Global investors are becoming more cautious as political interference could erode the Fed’s independence in setting interest rates. Increased risk aversion has sent capital into safe havens such as gold and the Swiss franc, further weakening the dollar.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note is another important factor affecting the USD. Last week, the yield rose sharply to 4.63% in the first half of the week, but then fell back, erasing almost all of its previous gains. Currently, the yield is hovering around the support zone of 4.4 - 4.35%. If the yield stays above this zone, it could provide some support for the USD, helping to limit the decline in the DXY index.

The euro (EUR) is showing positive signs, reinforcing the downward pressure on the USD. The EUR/USD pair has recovered strongly from the low of 1.1065, maintaining the overall bullish trend. Current support levels for EUR/USD are 1.1250, 1.1170 and 1.1090, while the next target is the 1.14 area. If the upward momentum is maintained, EUR/USD may reach the 1.15 - 1.16 area in the coming weeks. The strengthening of the euro is not only due to the internal factors of the euro area but also due to the weakness of the USD. This suggests that the EUR/USD pair may continue to rise next week.

One notable event is the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum in Sintra, which runs from June 30 to July 2. Statements from the ECB could influence the EUR/USD pair, which has a major impact on the DXY index. If the ECB signals a rate hike or policy tightening to combat inflation in the eurozone, the euro could rise, putting further downward pressure on the dollar. Conversely, if the ECB maintains a dovish tone, the dollar could find support in the short term.

In the coming week, the USD is likely to continue to trend downward due to the impact of US trade policy and the downward trend of Treasury bond yields. Pressure from bond yields, expectations of monetary easing, as well as fluctuations from geopolitical risks and upcoming US economic data (such as PCE, employment, ISM index...) will be key factors shaping the trend of the USD next week.

The USD is on a downward trend. Photo: thoibaonganhang.vn

Domestic USD exchange rate today

In the domestic market, at the beginning of the trading session on June 30, the State Bank announced the central exchange rate of the Vietnamese Dong to the USD at 25,048 VND.

* The reference USD exchange rate at the State Bank's transaction office for buying and selling is kept at: 23,846 VND - 26,250 VND.

USD exchange rates at commercial banks are as follows: