Positive tax information, how will the stock market perform in the future?

Initial information about the results of the reciprocal tax negotiations between the US and Vietnam is quite positive, which is expected to impact the stock market.

Mr. Nguyen Viet Quang, Business Director of Yuanta Vietnam Securities Company, optimistically predicted that next week the domestic stock market will have a chance to surpass the peak, possibly reaching 1,400 points.

"There may also be some downward adjustments to the 1,350 - 1,360 point range in 2 or 3 sessions, and that is the momentum of the market. However, because the indices bottomed out in April, from now until the end of the year, the market may reach 1,400 - 1,450 points," said Mr. Quang.

Sharing the same view, Mr. Phan Manh Ha, Business Director of VnDirect, commented that although not yet official, the initial information about the tariff rate that US President Donald Trump posted on social media is more joyful than worrying, this level is also within the predictions of financial experts.

" This has a positive impact on investor sentiment, but the stock market is still waiting for the specific figures to be officially announced as well as the detailed tax rates for industries and products before the trend becomes clear, " said Mr. Ha.

Experts believe that the stock market will develop positively in the coming days.

"To assess the overall impact on Vietnam, we also need to compare it with the tariffs that the Trump administration has imposed on all competing countries in the market. For example, in the garment industry, we need to consider the tariffs of Bangladesh, Indonesia, etc. If other countries have lower tariffs, we will face the risk of shifting orders," said Mr. Ha.

However, Mr. Ha believes that the market will likely improve next week. He analyzed: "Psychologically, the previous figure of 46% has been removed. Therefore, investors will focus more on other positive information such as: economic growth, upgrade, announced second quarter business results...".

Mr. Nguyen The Minh, Director of Analysis of the Individual Client Division, Yuanta Vietnam Securities Company, commented that information about US tariffs is the main variable for stocks. The market in July may go up but in a guiding manner, with alternating sessions of increase and decrease. There will be a large differentiation between stock groups, no longer increasing evenly like in May and June.

“The VN-Index is forecasted to return to 1,400 points and even above 1,400 in July, in the 1,410 - 1,415 point range,” Mr. Minh commented.

Which industry stocks have a lot of room for growth?

Mr. Nguyen Viet Quang commented: After the tariff story, technology, AI, and semiconductor stocks are highly appreciated. In addition, with the support for upgrading the Vietnamese stock market, the group of stocks in the securities industry is also quite bright. In the coming time, the group of banking stocks will also have a good increase when actively supported by the Credit Law. Finally, when legal policies have been removed for the real estate market, this group of stocks will also have a lot of room to explode.

However, Mr. Quang also said that investors need to allocate their portfolios to invest in groups of stocks of enterprises with standard scale such as FPT , Vietconbank... As for securities, they should choose enterprises that benefit from foreign investors, have large and complete scale. As for real estate, they should choose industries and projects of investors with foundation and reputation.

Meanwhile, Mr. Nguyen The Minh predicted that information about the US tax rate will not only benefit export stocks but will also spread to all foreign capital investment when tax risks are reduced. In particular, if the US recognizes Vietnam as a market economy, Vietnamese enterprises will avoid trade defense barriers, helping the seafood, textile, and garment industries benefit strongly in the long term.

Mr. Phan Manh Ha also recommends that, in any scenario, investors should be cautious with industries that are directly affected by tariffs such as exports and FDI (including industrial real estate). It is best to avoid FOMO or bottom fishing.

Investors can choose industries that are less affected by tariffs such as: Banking, real estate, construction, retail consumption, food production, technology...

Mr. Ha advised that before the tariff announcement, investors should pay attention to risk management for their portfolios, balancing the proportion of stocks and cash appropriately to prevent unpredictable fluctuations. This helps investors be more proactive if unusual factors occur.

"Industry groups that will have favorable conditions and good growth include: Real estate, public investment, banking, retail/consumption. In addition, the industrial park real estate group is also worth paying attention to and has the opportunity to recover if the tax rate is not too negative, because Vietnam still has the advantage of attracting FDI. However, the prospect of this group depends a lot on the tax results," Mr. Ha predicted.

PHAM DUY

Source: https://vtcnews.vn/thong-tin-thue-doi-ung-tich-cuc-chung-khoan-sap-toi-dien-bien-the-nao-ar952793.html