World gold price remains stable, SJC gold maintains peak in safe zone

The gold market has just experienced a challenging week as the precious metal failed to regain strong growth momentum, struggling to cope with conflicting economic news and cautious investor sentiment.

Gold prices opened the week at $3,394.89 an ounce, but then fell as tariff concerns spread. After a sharp decline earlier in the week, gold prices recorded several unsuccessful attempts to recover. The North American session pushed gold prices to $3,360, but the rally was short-lived.

In the following sessions, gold prices mostly moved sideways in a narrow range of around $30. Investors saw a few small increases above $3,370 after a positive Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, but that momentum quickly faded.

The most notable report of the week was the Producer Price Index (PPI) report released on Thursday morning (US time). This index increased sharply, affecting the market's confidence in the possibility of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates in September.

Expectations of loose monetary policy have been a key factor supporting gold prices. When these expectations weakened, gold prices immediately came under pressure. Gold prices fell to a weekly low of just over $3,330 an ounce.

The gold market was quiet at the end of the week. Reports on retail sales and consumer sentiment were largely flat, leaving gold prices trading in a very narrow range until the close of trading.

Spending on many essentials, such as vehicles, furniture and clothing, remained strong, thanks to factors such as electric vehicle incentives, online shopping and preparations for the new school year, said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. Spending on services was also strong, especially summer travel , with gasoline sales and restaurant spending rising.

Despite the somewhat pessimistic sentiment, Mr. Adams said that actual spending behavior of Americans is still in good shape. He predicted that consumption will grow moderately in the second half of this year and more strongly next year when the tax cuts take effect.

At the end of the week, spot gold price was at 3,334 USD/ounce. Gold futures price for September 2025 delivery on the Comex New York floor reached 3,341 USD/ounce.

Even though the US PPI rose more than expected, it will not prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates, according to Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. This information has put pressure on gold prices, as the market is worried that the Fed will be more cautious in monetary policy.

Rising production costs could squeeze corporate profits or push inflation higher, but that doesn’t change the long-term outlook for gold, Hansen said. “The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will ultimately have to strike a balance between controlling inflation and supporting the economy,” he said.

Gold prices are trading in a narrow range, hovering around $3,350 an ounce. Demand from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) remains strong. Holdings of gold in ETFs have risen to a two-year high of 2,878 tonnes, according to Bloomberg data.

Mr. Hansen said this increase shows that investors still believe in the long-term prospects of gold. This belief is reinforced by expectations that the Fed will eventually ease monetary policy and the risk of persistent stagflation.

In the short term, markets will focus on July's core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data and its implications for the FOMC meeting in September. The Jackson Hole economic symposium from August 21-23 is also an important event, where Fed officials can signal the future direction of monetary policy.

According to Marc Chandler, CEO of Bannockburn Global Forex, spot gold has built a solid foundation around $3,330 an ounce. He assessed that the market is in an accumulation phase, with prices mainly fluctuating between $3,250 and $3,400.

The only uncertainty that could impact the market is geopolitical risks. However, the meeting between President Trump and President Putin takes place at the end of the week, so it is unlikely to have a significant impact.

Mr. Chandler predicts that gold prices will likely continue to move sideways next week due to a lack of major economic events on the calendar. Chandler predicts the lowest price will be at the end of August, near $3,270 - an attractive buying opportunity.

Meanwhile, the domestic gold price is currently "out of sync" with the world gold price. The increase and decrease of domestic gold is still out of sync with the world price, SJC broke out to a new record high despite the international gold price being flat. The limited supply, combined with the preference for gold as a safe savings asset, could push SJC to new heights.

PV (synthesis)

Source: https://baohaiphong.vn/gia-vang-the-gioi-di-ngang-vang-sjc-giu-vung-dinh-cao-trong-vung-an-toan-518335.html