The focus of attention is on August 1, the deadline set by US President Donald Trump for a series of new tariff policies.
In this volatile environment, two seemingly disparate assets, bitcoin and gold, are telling fascinating parallel stories, revealing the hidden confrontation between the assets of the future and the safe havens of the past.
Bitcoin and the “calm before the storm”
After an impressive July surge that saw it reach a historic high of $123,200, bitcoin (BTC) appears to be taking a breather. The world’s largest cryptocurrency is currently trading sideways around $118,000 per BTC. However, for technical analysts, this sideways movement is not a sign of weakness, but rather an extreme “squeeze” that signals an impending breakout.
The Bollinger Bands analysis tool - an indicator that measures price volatility - is narrowing to almost its maximum on the daily chart of BTC. Think of the Bollinger Bands as two rubber bands circling the price; when they tighten, it means that the pressure is at its peak and a sharp bounce in either direction is inevitable. The ATR (Average True Range) indicator also confirms this decrease in volatility, further supporting the above scenario.
It is worth noting that most of the signals are leaning towards a bullish scenario. The bitcoin chart has formed a classic “bullish pennant” pattern, which consists of a “flagpole” (a previous strong rally) and a “flag” (a consolidation phase within a symmetrical triangle). Currently, the two trendlines of the triangle are converging, suggesting that a “short squeeze” could be imminent, sending prices soaring.
If this scenario materializes, bitcoin’s immediate target would be to break the old high of $123,200 to reach the psychological level of $125,000. Further, if the pennant pattern’s measurement rule is applied (the flagpole length is approximately 20%), bitcoin’s price could head towards an ambitious target: $144,000.
However, investors need to be cautious with the important support level of $112,000. If BTC price breaks this level, all bullish predictions will be temporarily invalidated.
Gold: Shining quietly amid turmoil
While bitcoin is intriguing with its complex technical signals, in another corner of the market, gold is shining in a very traditional way. Spot gold rose 0.5% to $3,290.38 an ounce in trading on July 30. The main driver was the weakness of the US dollar and US bond yields, as investors sought a safe haven from trade uncertainties.
“We’re seeing increased uncertainty as the August 1 tariff deadline approaches. This is a slight boost to safe-haven demand,” said Peter Grant, vice president at Zaner Metals.
President Trump’s tariff policies, with surprise moves like imposing tariffs on copper and goods from Brazil and South Korea, have created an environment of uncertainty that has allowed gold to perform its role. Moreover, inflation in the US has shown signs of picking up, with the PCE price index (the Fed’s preferred measure) rising 0.3% in June.
Gold has long been seen as the premier hedge against currency devaluation.
Global financial markets are holding their breath ahead of the August 1 US tariff deadline, while investors are facing one of the most difficult choices: bet on "digital gold" or trust in "physical gold" (Photo: Spaws).
Interestingly, both the bitcoin and gold stories revolve around the same axis, which is US economic policy.
Tariffs: For gold, tariffs mean risk and uncertainty, driving money into safe haven assets. For bitcoin, tariffs and global trade disruptions are seen as a test of the traditional financial system, increasing the appeal of a decentralized, borderless financial system.
Fed Rates : The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has just decided to keep interest rates unchanged, reducing expectations of a cut in September. However, the market still believes that pressure from tariffs could force the Fed to act soon. A low interest rate environment is always beneficial for both gold and bitcoin.
Gold reduces the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. With bitcoin and other risk assets, it encourages investors to seek higher returns.
Not only gold and bitcoin, other markets are also feeling the heat. Silver and platinum prices have both dropped. In particular, copper prices on the COMEX floor have "evaporated" more than 20% after Mr. Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper pipes and copper wires. This shows the direct and strong impact of tariff policies on each specific industry.
The market is at a historic crossroads. On one side is bitcoin, with technical analysis signaling explosive growth potential, representing a new generation of assets that accept high risks in exchange for breakthrough returns. On the other side is gold, an asset that has been proven over thousands of years of history as a safe haven in times of “storm.”
The confrontation between “digital gold” and “traditional gold” in the face of this tariff storm is not simply a shift in money flows, but also a reflection of the change in psychology and strategy of global investors. August will be a dramatic month, and the answer to the question “Who will be king?” may reshape the face of financial markets for years to come.
Source: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/truoc-gio-g-thue-quan-bitcoin-se-bung-no-hay-vang-moi-la-vua-tru-an-20250801001221350.htm
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