Outstanding credit/GDP is 134% by the end of 2024, a number that many experts have warned about - Photo: NGOC PHUONG
Accompanying credit growth is concern about bad debt. The total bad debt of 27 banks at the end of the first quarter of 2025 was approximately VND264,000 billion, an increase of about 16% compared to the beginning of the year (more than VND37,000 billion).
In addition, State Bank Governor Nguyen Thi Hong noted that domestic capital still depends heavily on bank credit, including medium- and long-term capital.
In which, the credit balance/GDP (gross domestic product) is 134% by the end of 2024, so if we continue to rely on bank capital, it will be risky and cause consequences for the economy , making it difficult to achieve high growth and sustainability, the Governor said before the National Assembly.
4 state-owned banks pumped more than 7.1 million billion VND into the economy
In the group of state-owned banks, BIDV leads in outstanding customer loans with over VND2.1 trillion, up 2.5% compared to the beginning of the year. VietinBank follows closely with a loan scale exceeding VND1.8 trillion, up nearly 4.6%.
Although the first quarter financial report was not released, a summary report from Agribank said that total outstanding loans to the economy by the end of March reached nearly 1.75 million billion VND.
Vietcombank - the bank with the largest profit in the system - recorded the lowest outstanding loan balance in the "Big 4" group, with more than 1.46 million billion VND, an increase of about 1.2%.
In total, the four state-owned giants poured more than VND7.12 trillion into the economy in the first three months of the year, more than all the remaining private banks combined. However, the group's growth in the first three months of this year was only under 2%, lower than the industry average.
In an analysis report on the banking industry, the team of experts from VIS Rating - a credit rating company with capital from Moody's, stated: In the first quarter of 2025, credit capacity will decline for some state-owned banks (SOBs) and medium-sized banks, due to an increase in bad debts (NPLs) from personal home loans in the speculative segment and from corporate customers facing cash flow difficulties.
This also reduces return on average assets (ROAA) and risk absorption buffers, according to VIS Rating experts. Specifically, potential asset risks are increasing for SOBs with significant scale for foreign direct investment (FDI) customers such as VCB, BIDV and for banks with large personal consumer finance loan portfolios such as VPB, HDB, MBB in the context of US reciprocal tariff risks.
In addition, according to VIS Rating, the industry's capital and liquidity profile has deteriorated, as loan growth exceeds deposit mobilization.
Credit continues to increase, but NIM is still under pressure?
In a recently published updated report, the analysis team of MB Securities (MBS) gave a positive assessment of credit growth at many banks in the second quarter of 2025.
Specifically, VPBank (VPB) is forecast to achieve credit growth of about 12% by the end of June 2025. However, the bank's net interest margin (NIM) is expected to remain at 5.9%, flat compared to the previous quarter but down slightly compared to the same period due to the high comparison base of 2024.
At Sacombank (STB), credit by the end of the second quarter is forecast to increase by about 9%, while NIM may decrease by about 10 basis points, down to 3.6%.
For VietinBank (CTG), MBS estimates that credit growth will reach 10%, with NIM remaining stable at 2.6%.
HDBank (HDB) is forecast to see credit growth of around 6% in Q2, mainly due to a low base in Q1. However, MBS notes that the bank’s core customer base could be significantly impacted by new regulations related to tax declaration and electronic invoices. HDB’s NIM is expected to continue to decline, to 4.5%.
In addition, many other banks are also forecast to have positive credit growth by the end of the second quarter of 2025, including: ACB (8%), BIDV (8%), LPB (+10%), VCB (+7%), OCB (+7%), TCB (+9%), VIB (+8%)...
As of June 16, 2025, the industry's credit growth reached 6.99% compared to the beginning of the year, significantly higher than the 3.75% of the same period in 2024.
According to Ms. Tran Thi Khanh Hien, Director of MBS Research, the current credit growth momentum still mainly comes from the corporate customer segment, supported by low interest rates. However, this factor also makes it difficult for NIM to improve compared to the first quarter of the year.
A worrying point is that the asset quality of the whole industry has not shown clear signs of improvement. Bad debts and group 2 debts both increased in the first quarter, causing the cost of credit risk provisions in the second quarter of 2025 to be forecast to increase by about 10% compared to the same period.
Source: https://tuoitre.vn/4-ong-lon-cho-vay-hon-7-1-trieu-ti-dong-xuat-hien-noi-lo-phia-sau-chuyen-tang-tin-dung-20250622195831141.htm
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