VN-Index continuously surpasses peak, should we invest now?

Last week, the stock market experienced many strong increases, investors wondered whether they should put money into stocks at this time.

Investors should be cautious

The Vietnamese stock market has maintained a streak of 9 consecutive sessions of increase, surpassing many short-term resistance levels. A series of stock groups in securities, banking, insurance, real estate, etc. have increased very strongly. Many stocks have increased in price by 50%-70%, even doubling in a short period of time.

Mr. Phan Dung Khanh, Investment Consulting Director of Maybank Securities Company, said that VN-Index may have many new peaks in the near future.

According to him, to avoid “buying at the top” when the market is down, investors should reduce their stock holdings if they are using high margin or holding large amounts. Those with few stocks can wait for adjustments or buy at a small percentage.

“ However, it is necessary to distinguish between short-term and long-term peaks. If short-term, reduce the proportion and lower the margin; if medium-term and long-term, you can buy when the market adjusts. For those who are holding cash, they can hold stocks ,” said Mr. Khanh.

Experts from Vietnam Construction Securities Joint Stock Company also said that observing recent sessions with explosive volume, up to 75% of VN-Index sessions closed down, showing a high possibility that there will be a correction in this area.

VN-Index has had 2 consecutive weeks of increase, but the increase of the past week has tended to slow down when the increase was narrowed by the decline at the end of the week. Although the positive trend is still dominant, the sell signal has appeared in the decline at the end of the week, so it is necessary to limit new buying positions.

“We see that although the bullish signal is still overwhelming, the upward momentum has weakened over the past week and there is a high possibility of a correction in the sessions next week.

We maintain a cautious view, not rushing to open bottom-fishing positions in the next week's down sessions, and continue to maintain a larger cash position. Investors should patiently wait for the balance accumulation zone to return to a new net buying position," the expert warned.

Sharing the same opinion, experts from VPBank Securities warned that technical signals are showing warnings, with the possibility of a short-term adjustment.

" The market is entering a hot growth phase, investors should not rush but wait for clearer market signals or adjustments to re-enter, " the expert recommended.

VN-Index continuously surpasses peak, should we invest?

On the other hand, after a period of adjustment, market valuations (P/E and P/B) will return to the 10-year average, moving from a period of cheap valuations to a period of gradual rationalization. Looking back at history, when market valuations return to a reasonable level, there will be a period of correction for the entire market.

Meanwhile, expert Phan Tan Nhat, Head of Analysis, Saigon - Hanoi Securities Joint Stock Company (SHS), said that in history, there has never been a consecutive price increase with a strong increase of around 60% of the VN-Index without a strong correction. Therefore, investors need to be cautious and closely monitor market developments.

Stocks will remain in an uptrend

Statistics on transactions on the HOSE floor last week showed that the VN-Index had 4 increasing sessions and 1 decreasing session. At the end of the trading week, the VN-Index increased by 45.05 points, equivalent to more than 2.84% to 1,630 points.

Liquidity set a new record with the total transaction value of the whole market last week reaching VND258,841 billion, up 2.34% compared to the previous week, equivalent to an average of VND51,770 billion/session.

On the HNX floor, there were also 4 increasing sessions and 1 decreasing session. In total, the HNX-Index ended the week at 282.34 points, up 9.88 points, equivalent to +3.63% compared to the previous week.

At the same time, liquidity was also active with the whole week's transaction value reaching 22,036 billion VND, up 12% compared to the previous week and an average of 4,407 billion VND per session.

In its newly released August strategy report, ASEAN Securities (ASEANSC Research) assessed that the market will still receive support from the loosening macroeconomic management policy, highlighted by efforts to boost public investment disbursement and a low interest rate environment, in addition to expectations of upgrading the Vietnamese stock market.

However, VN-Index will also face variables, including the USD/VND exchange rate alongside potential profit-taking after the market's impressive gains since early April 2025.

ASEANSC Research pointed out that the USD/VND exchange rate is still a short-term variable and can create a cautious psychological effect on the stock market if the upward momentum from the beginning of the year is maintained.

At the same time, it is believed that VN-Index is currently moving in an uptrend and will mainly move in a price channel from 1,500 to 1,625 points in August 2025.

Maybank Securities assessed that the VN-Index is experiencing one of the most impressive increases in history and reaching a new peak. Average liquidity reached a record of VND32.8 trillion in July 2025, supported by upgrade expectations and abundant cash flow.

The analysts believe that the positive sentiment surrounding the upgrade is expected to continue to drive the market in August–September 2025.

However, in the short term, data from previous market upgrades show that the market typically corrects down by an average of 4–5% due to a “sell the news” reaction, and this trend can last up to 3 months. Overall, however, although 2/3 of the year-to-date gains have been recorded, market valuations remain around the 5-year average and have not been stretched, allowing the uptrend to continue.

Maybank maintains a positive view for the second half of the year, raising its year-end VN-Index target by 20% to 1,800 points. The three priority sectors are those benefiting from infrastructure investment (steel, real estate), strong credit growth (banking) and structural demand (IT, aviation).

Ngoc Vy

Source: https://vtcnews.vn/vn-index-lien-tuc-vuot-dinh-co-nen-dau-tu-luc-nay-ar960298.html