DNVN - According to the latest report on Short-Term Energy Outlook from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), global oil demand growth next year will not reach the previous forecast, mainly due to the slowdown in economic activity in China and North America.
Specifically, EIA expects global oil demand to increase by 1.2 million barrels per day to 104.3 million barrels per day in 2025. However, this figure has been reduced by 300,000 barrels per day compared to the previous estimate. In 2024, global oil demand is estimated to reach about 103.1 million barrels per day, 20,000 barrels per day lower than the previous forecast.
The EIA’s decision to revise down the forecast mainly reflects a decline in oil imports and refining activity in China, the world’s largest crude oil consumer. In addition, the EIA also expressed concern about a decline in industrial production and manufacturing growth in the United States and Canada.
In its specific forecast, the EIA said that US oil demand will reach 20.5 million barrels per day next year, down from 20.6 million barrels per day in its previous forecast. This year, US oil demand is forecast to remain at 20.3 million barrels per day.
In contrast to the EIA, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts oil demand will increase by 950,000 barrels per day next year, while the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is more optimistic, forecasting an increase of up to 1.74 million barrels per day.
For 2024, the EIA forecasts global oil demand to grow by 940,000 barrels per day, while the IEA estimates it at around 900,000 barrels per day. OPEC has a higher forecast, with global oil demand growth reaching over 2 million barrels per day.
On the supply side, US oil production is expected to reach 13.22 million barrels per day in 2024, down slightly from the previous forecast of 13.25 million barrels per day. As the world’s largest oil producer, the US is expected to average 13.54 million barrels per day in 2025, about 1% lower than the previous forecast of 13.67 million barrels per day.
Along with the demand forecast reduction, the EIA also revised down its oil price forecast. Accordingly, the price of US light sweet crude (WTI) in 2024 will average about $76.91/barrel, down 2.4% from the previous forecast. Meanwhile, Brent crude is expected to average $80.89/barrel, down 2.3% from the previous estimate.
Cao Thong (t/h)
Source: https://doanhnghiepvn.vn/kinh-te/vi-sao-co-quan-thong-tin-nang-luong-my-ha-du-bao-nhu-cau-dau-the-gioi/20241010123815877
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