Central exchange rate hits new peak, free exchange rate fluctuates little

The currency market from June 16 to 20 recorded a historical high in the central exchange rate announced by the State Bank, reaching 25,031 VND/USD at the closing session of the week (June 20).

With a trading band of 5%, the ceiling and floor exchange rates were adjusted to 26,283 VND/USD and 23,779 VND/USD respectively. Meanwhile, the reference exchange rate at the State Bank of Vietnam increased to 23,830 VND/USD (buy) - 26,232 VND/USD (sell).

Compared to the end of last week, the central exchange rate increased by 56 VND, of which 4/5 sessions during the week the central exchange rate was adjusted up.

Central rate increases - Illustration photo — Last week, the central exchange rate hit a new peak. Illustrative photo

The “escalating” central exchange rate has also caused the USD listed at commercial banks to increase. The exchange rate at the Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (Vietcombank) is 25,892 VND/USD (buy) - 26,282 VND/USD (sell); at the Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam ( BIDV ) is 25,922 VND/USD (buy) - 26,282 VND/USD (sell). Thus, for the whole week, the exchange rate at Vietcombank and BIDV increased by 59 VND in the selling price compared to the end of last week.

On the free market, on June 20, the USD exchange rate was flat, trading at 26,310 VND/USD (buy) - 26,410 VND/USD (sell). Thus, the exchange rate on the free market fluctuated less than the exchange rate listed at commercial banks.

Along with the USD, the EUR exchange rate also increased significantly at commercial banks, for example at Vietcombank , the listed EUR exchange rate is 29,323 VND/USD (buy) - 30,869 VND/EUR (sell), an increase of 52 VND in the buying direction and 55 VND in the selling direction.

The British Pound – GBP fell sharply in the opposite direction, in which the price at Vietcombank was 34,326 VND/GBP (buy) - 35,784 VND/GBP (sell), down 86 - 90 VND/GBP.

In the international market, the DXY index measuring the value of the USD against six other major currencies in the world currency basket decreased by 0.26% to 98.65 points.

According to experts, the USD index has fallen to its lowest level in the past 3 years and is down nearly 10% compared to the beginning of the year, in the context of increasing instability related to tariff policies and the weakening economic outlook of the US, reducing expectations that USD is a safe investment channel. It is forecasted that the USD will continue to depreciate in the coming time, while the EUR has the opportunity to increase in value.

However, the domestic USD exchange rate is forecast to move in the opposite direction, possibly continuing to increase because global trade tensions continue and Vietnam has not reached a tariff agreement with the United States, plus cash flow from indirect investment or FDI enterprises transferring profits back to the country... tends to increase, creating pressure on the USD/VND exchange rate.

In addition to pressure from the international market, pressure from the interest rate difference between VND and USD and the pressure to repay foreign debt increases the demand for foreign currency, contributing to the psychology of hoarding USD. It is forecasted that in 2025, the VND/USD exchange rate will increase by 2-3%.

In the open market last week, in the mortgage channel, only the session on June 18 had 485.31 billion VND in winning bids for a 14-day term, interest rate of 4%/year, while the remaining 4 sessions had no winning bid volume, and the State Bank also did not bid for treasury bills.

Last week, 8,894.49 billion VND matured on the mortgage channel. Thus, the State Bank withdrew a net 8,409.18 billion VND from the market; there were 27,959.93 billion VND circulating on the mortgage channel.

Source: https://hanoimoi.vn/ty-gia-trung-tam-lap-dinh-moi-ty-gia-tu-do-it-bien-dong-706304.html