Bank rate hits ceiling

On the morning of August 21, commercial banks simultaneously raised the USD/VND selling rate to the maximum ceiling. The exchange rate at Vietcombank was listed at 26,196 VND/USD for buying and 26,536 VND/USD for selling, an increase of 16 VND/USD compared to the end of yesterday.

The central exchange rate announced by the State Bank today is 25,273 VND/USD, an increase of 10 VND/USD compared to yesterday. Correspondingly, with a trading band of 5%, the ceiling exchange rate also increased by 10 VND/USD compared to yesterday, but the exchange rate at banks still increased faster. Compared to the end of 2024, the exchange rate has increased by nearly 3.85% after nearly 8 months.

In the unofficial market, the free USD price is sold by some stores at 26,580 VND.

The sharp increase in exchange rates in recent weeks has been under pressure from both domestic and foreign factors. On the one hand, monetary policy is being maintained in a loose state to support growth and stimulate domestic consumption. On the other hand, the USD Dollar Index (DXY) is currently fluctuating around 98.3 points. Risks from the international trade environment are still relatively uncertain, although the reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US on other countries have been announced, putting some pressure on the demand for USD as a hedge. However, expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will soon cut interest rates at its next meeting ( September 2025) help maintain a certain level of confidence in the market.

Investors are looking to the 2025 Jackson Hole Symposium for clues on monetary policy direction. This is an important annual event organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. A speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on the evening of August 22 is expected to signal the possibility of a rate cut. Currently, the market is betting on a 78% probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, according to the CME FedWatch tool. This is still oversold, although it has dropped sharply compared to nearly 99% last week.

Recently, Mr. Trump called on the Governor of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) Lisa Cook to resign immediately following the female governor's mortgage fraud allegations. Mr. Trump also reaffirmed his desire for the Fed to take more drastic action and supported the option of lowering interest rates.

Exchange rate at Vietcombank on the morning of August 21 - Source: VCB

Despite the high exchange rate, according to FiinRatings, the exchange rate outlook in the coming time may be more positive when the global macro environment improves thanks to significantly lower tariffs and the possibility of the FED cutting interest rates as early as expected in September 2025.

While the exchange rate continuously set new peaks, the gold price also increased after surpassing the threshold of 125 million VND/tael for selling despite the international gold price remaining flat. Currently, the international gold price is trading at 3,340 USD/ounce. Meanwhile, in the domestic market, the SJC gold price this morning continued to set a new historical peak when it was listed at 124.4 million VND/tael for buying and 125.4 million VND/tael for selling, an increase of 600,000 VND per tael in just one day. The difference between buying and selling prices has narrowed to 1 million VND/tael this week. The high price of gold bars continues to widen the gap with the converted world gold price.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/ty-gia-ngan-hang-cham-tran-d366045.html