Second half of 2025: Unusual rains, floods, and cold spells may last until early next year

SKĐS - Dangerous weather phenomena such as strong storms, heavy rains, thunderstorms, and severe cold are likely to occur and cause damage if there is no timely prevention plan. The risk of flash floods and landslides in the mountainous areas of the North and North Central regions in August and September...

Abnormal, extreme weather is increasing

The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has just issued a nationwide seasonal climate warning bulletin, updating weather trends from August 2025 to January 2026. Many dangerous weather patterns continue to be warned, such as heat waves, heavy rains, strong storms and severe cold. ENSO remains neutral throughout the forecast period.

Ms. Tran Thi Chuc, Deputy Head of Climate Forecast Department, National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, said that in recent months, many dangerous weather phenomena have occurred consecutively, causing great impacts on production and life in many localities.

The meteorological agency predicts that rain and floods will continue to be unusual.

From May to early July 2025, thunderstorms, tornadoes, lightning and hail appeared sporadically in the Northern, North Central, Central Highlands and Southern regions. Many places recorded damage caused by thunderstorms, such as Hoa Binh, Nghe An, Kon Tum , Kien Giang...

Three types of storms and tropical depressions (TDPs) have formed in the East Sea: Storm No. 1 (WUTIP): level 11, gusts of level 14, affecting the southwest of Guangdong province (China). Storm No. 2 (DANAS): level 12, gusts of level 15, moving out of the East Sea. Another TDP formed on June 24, moved inland to Guangxi and weakened.

In particular, severe heat waves occurred in many large areas in the North and Central regions. The peak was on June 1-2, when Hanoi (Lang station) recorded a temperature of up to 40.6 degrees Celsius - a record level in many years. In Nghe An, on May 9, the temperature reached 41.2 degrees Celsius. In the South and Central Highlands, heat waves appeared in the first half of May, with common temperatures of 35-37 degrees Celsius.

Meanwhile, widespread heavy rain also occurred, especially from June 10-13 when storm No. 1 caused heavy to very heavy rain in the area from South Ha Tinh to Quang Ngai, with common rainfall of 250-500mm, in some places exceeding 600mm.

According to the meteorological agency, according to statistics, the average temperature in May and June in most areas is approximately the average of many years (TBNN). However, in the area from Thanh Hoa to Ha Tinh, the temperature in May is 0.5-1 degree Celsius lower than the TBNN.

In the first half of July, the Northern and Central Central regions continued to have temperatures lower than the average due to heavy rain and prolonged cloud cover. Total rainfall was clearly differentiated: May 2025: many places were 20-80% higher than the average, even over 200% in some mountainous areas of the North. However, from Da Nang to Gia Lai, rainfall was recorded to be 15-70% lower.

June 2025: The Northeast, Thanh Hoa, Nghe An and the South will have 20-60% less rain than the average. Meanwhile, Ha Tinh - Quang Ngai will have 300-600% more rain due to the impact of the storm.

First half of July: South Central, Central Highlands and South continue to have 30-65% less rain. North, North Central and Central Central regions have 20-80% more rain.

Beware of heavy rains

Ms. Tran Thi Chuc said that the climate forecast for the season from August to October 2025, ENSO will maintain a neutral state with a probability of 70-90%. This is a favorable condition for the normal development of summer-autumn weather patterns.

In the East Sea region, there are forecasted to be about 6-7 storms and tropical depressions, of which 2-3 are likely to directly affect our mainland.

Heavy rains are concentrated in the North in August-September and the Central region in September-October. The rains can cause flash floods and landslides in mountainous areas. Widespread heat waves have decreased significantly since September, and the number of hot days nationwide is forecast to be lower than the average.

Average temperatures are generally close to the average. Total rainfall nationwide is forecast to be average, except for the coastal areas of the Northeast, Thanh Hoa to Quang Ngai in September-October, where rainfall is 10-30% higher than the average.

From November 2025 to January 2026, cold air will increase, severe cold may appear. Entering winter, cold air will start to become more active from November. The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said: severe cold is likely to occur in December and January 2026, with intensity equivalent to the average of many years.

From November to January, there is a possibility of 2-3 more storms or tropical depressions appearing in the East Sea, of which about 1 storm will directly affect our mainland. Heavy rains can still occur in the area from Ha Tinh to Quang Ngai and the Eastern Central Highlands, especially in November-December.

Total rainfall in the region from Nghe An to Lam Dong in November-December is likely to be 10-25% higher than the average. In January 2026, nationwide rainfall will generally be approximately the average.

The Mekong River Basin needs to closely monitor floods and water shortages. In the Mekong River Basin, rainfall is unevenly distributed: In August, the upstream has 5–10% more rain, while the downstream is 5–10% lower. In September, the entire basin has approximately the same or 10% more rain. In October, the upstream has 10–20% less rain, while the downstream is 10–30% higher. In November–December, the upstream has approximately the same rain, while the downstream is 5–15% higher.

Dangerous weather phenomena such as strong storms, heavy rains, thunderstorms, and severe cold are likely to occur and cause damage if there is no timely prevention plan. There is a risk of flash floods and landslides in the mountainous areas of the North and North Central regions in August and September. Flooding in the Central and Central Highlands regions may occur in October and December.

Frost and frost may affect agricultural production in the last months of the year. The meteorological agency recommends that localities, authorities and people closely monitor weather forecasts and warnings to proactively respond and minimize damage caused by natural disasters.

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Source: https://baolaocai.vn/nua-cuoi-2025-mua-lu-bat-thuong-ret-dam-co-the-keo-dai-sang-dau-nam-sau-post648849.html