Artificial Rain: Dream and Reality

The story of “chasing clouds and summoning rain” is not new, but each time it appears, it arouses public curiosity. What needs to be affirmed is: serious science is not a game of “calling the wind and summoning the rain”.

Simulation of artificial rain making process.

The Principle of Artificial Rainmaking: Dream and Reality

As early as the late 1940s, American and Soviet scientists conducted the first experiments on cloud impact. They hoped that one day, humans would only need to “press a button in the morning to decide whether it would rain or shine”. After more than half a century, research has progressed, many countries have invested billions of dollars, but in the end, artificial rain is still only a fragile, erratic, unpredictable result and even more difficult to replicate.

The basic principle of artificial rain, whether in Russia, the US, China or Thailand, is the same: take advantage of natural atmospheric masses that carry water vapor, then intervene by planting condensation or freezing nuclei in them, causing the water vapor in the clouds to condense into larger water droplets and fall. In theory, this sounds feasible. But in practice, countless factors such as temperature, humidity, altitude, wind speed, air density, direction of air mass movement, etc. can disrupt this process. If just one of these parameters is not suitable, the entire effort becomes futile.

China is famous for its strong pursuit of artificial rainmaking technology. Before the 2008 and 2022 Beijing Olympics, the country spent billions of dollars building missile and anti-aircraft artillery systems to sow chemicals into clouds. However, the effectiveness is only local, short-term, and difficult to prove with scientific data. Even the Chinese media had to admit: If the technology was really effective, how could the country still suffer from severe drought in 2022, the Yangtze River and Dongting Lake dry up, and tens of millions of people lack water for daily use?

In the US, especially in California, cloud seeding projects have been around for decades. The National Weather Service (NOAA) estimates that the increase in rainfall, if any, would be only about 5–15%, which is not enough to solve the long-term drought. A series of wildfires still occur, despite tens of millions of dollars poured into this technology.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been heavily promoting rainmaking technology using even drones that broadcast electricity. However, in reality, many artificial rains in the UAE have only caused localized flooding and urban traffic congestion, while long-term droughts remain intact. Even the local press has had to admit: this technology cannot replace water resource management and sustainable solutions.

India has also implemented artificial rain projects to combat drought in the state of Maharashtra. But a subsequent assessment report said the effectiveness was very low, “not enough to be considered a policy solution”. Indian scientists recommended stopping large investments, shifting to water resource management and developing water-saving agriculture .

These evidences show that artificial rain making is not a "magic wand" to solve natural disasters, but only brings modest results, is unstable and difficult to prove with scientific data.

Necessary and sufficient conditions for artificial rain

From the above facts, it can be seen that artificial rain is not simply a matter of launching rockets or spraying chemicals into the air, but requires the simultaneous convergence of many strict conditions.

First of all, a large air mass containing abundant water vapor, with the right temperature, humidity, pressure and convection for cloud formation, must be available. If the sky is clear, or the clouds are too thin and lack moisture, then any attempt at manipulation will be futile.

Next, the sufficient condition is that the seeding system must intervene at the right time, in the right place and with the right density of seeds, so that the tiny water droplets in the clouds can condense, grow larger and overcome air resistance, falling to the ground as rain. This is an extremely fragile process, easily broken by even a small change in wind direction, temperature or humidity.

Therefore, many research projects only achieve part of the “necessary conditions”, that is, clouds and humidity, but do not ensure the “sufficient conditions” for rain to fall in the desired place. The practical effect therefore only stops at increasing the probability of rain, but cannot turn the dream of “calling the wind and summoning the rain” into reality.

Vietnam: Research exists, but cannot be applied yet

In Vietnam, scientists have long pursued the dream of making artificial rain. Associate Professor Vu Thanh Ca’s research project in 2005 invited many leading experts from Russia and the US to coordinate seminars and surveys. The research team also traveled to Russia, Thailand, and China to learn from experience. But so far, both theory and practice have shown that this technology cannot be applied on a commercial scale.

More worryingly, there was a time when a company made a startling proposal like a “calling for rain” project with an emergency advance of VND5,000 billion to purchase equipment and experimental chemicals. The Government Office at that time had to consult with 7 ministries, but there was no evidence to confirm that this was the right direction. In the context of the country’s economic difficulties, high public debt, and tight budget, spending thousands of billions of VND on a pipe dream is unacceptable.

No one denies the human desire to conquer nature. But that desire must be accompanied by a serious scientific foundation, verifiable and repeatable results, and bring real socio-economic efficiency. Any project based on vague promises and lacking scientific evidence is a waste, even damaging to social trust.

Even advanced, wealthy countries like the US, China, India or the UAE, after decades and billions of dollars of investment, still suffer from droughts, floods and forest fires. That proves a simple truth: Humans cannot control the weather. Investing in “calling the wind and summoning the rain” at this time is no different than throwing taxpayers’ money into the sky.

Meanwhile, we have many more urgent and practical things to invest in: water resource management, flood drainage infrastructure development, agricultural transformation to adapt to climate change, and modernizing the hydrometeorological system to provide early warning of natural disasters. This is the right path, within reach and bringing sustainable results.

The development of science requires honesty, transparency and verification. Serious science is not magic. Artificial rain, no matter how attractive, is just a distant dream. Instead of chasing the illusion of “chasing clouds and calling for rain”, what Vietnam needs now are solutions for resource management, climate change response, and building social trust through practical actions.

Dr. To Van Truong, Former Director of the Southern Institute of Planning

Source: https://nhandan.vn/mua-nhan-tao-giac-mo-va-thuc-te-post905635.html