Brent and WTI oil prices "fall": Can Vietnam take advantage of the price reduction opportunity?

Forecast of gasoline prices tomorrow, July 24, in the context of world oil prices continuing to decline due to concerns about economic recession and trade tensions.

World oil price developments today

On the morning of July 23 (Vietnam time), Brent oil price decreased by 0.82 USD (equivalent to 1.2%) to 68.39 USD/barrel, while WTI oil price decreased by 1.05 USD (equivalent to 1.6%) to 66.15 USD/barrel. This decrease was explained by the fading expectation of a trade agreement between the US and Europe, raising concerns about the risk of economic recession in major oil consuming markets.

Diesel oil, in particular, was the biggest loser among energy commodities, reflecting concerns about the global economy. The industrial fuel, used primarily in manufacturing, construction and heavy-duty transportation, has led the oil market in recent weeks amid tight global supplies.

Forecast of domestic gasoline prices tomorrow 7/24/2025

Based on the world oil price developments, domestic petroleum enterprises believe that if the regulatory agency does not affect the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund, domestic gasoline prices may decrease by 120-130 VND/liter, while diesel prices may decrease by 350 VND/liter. In case the Stabilization Fund is used, gasoline prices may remain the same.

Forecasting model of Vietnam Petroleum Institute (VPI)

The Vietnam Petroleum Institute (VPI)'s Machine Learning-based gasoline price forecasting model also made a similar assessment. VPI forecasts that the retail price of E5 RON 92 gasoline may decrease by VND160 to VND19,320 per liter, and that of RON 95-III gasoline may decrease by VND162 to VND19,758 per liter.

However, VPI forecasts that retail oil prices will increase slightly from 0.8 to 2% this period. Specifically, diesel may increase by 374 VND (2%) to 19,164 VND/liter, kerosene may increase by 1.1% to 18,624 VND/liter, and fuel oil is forecast to increase by 0.8% to 15,343 VND/kg. VPI also forecasts that the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Trade will continue not to set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund this period.

Previous operating period

In the previous operating period on July 17, the Ministry of Finance - Industry and Trade adjusted gasoline prices down and oil prices up. Specifically, the price of E5 RON92 gasoline decreased by VND178/liter, down to VND19,481/liter; the price of RON95 gasoline decreased by VND165/liter, down to VND19,925/liter. The price of diesel oil decreased by VND38/liter, down to VND18,799/liter; the price of fuel oil decreased by VND85/kg, down to VND15,478/kg. The price of kerosene alone increased by VND58/liter, up to VND18,429/liter.

Source: https://baodanang.vn/gia-dau-brent-wti-do-deo-viet-nam-co-tan-dung-duoc-co-hoi-giam-gia-3297660.html