This development took place in the context of the stock market being differentiated by industry group, showing certain expectations of investors on the internal strength of enterprises as well as supporting factors from the business environment.
Stable operations, business sectors maintain growth momentum
In the second quarter of 2025, Masan is estimated to achieve a profit before distribution to minority shareholders (NPAT Pre-MI) of about VND 1,500 billion, an increase of nearly 60% over the same period last year. This is the third consecutive quarter that the company has recorded a profit increase compared to the same period last year, showing a certain improvement in operating efficiency after the restructuring of the business portfolio.
In the retail sector, WinCommerce (WCM) continued to expand its network with 257 new stores in the first 5 months of the year, equivalent to nearly 40% of the plan to open new facilities for the whole year. Activities in rural areas are being promoted in the context of increasing consumer demand here, creating conditions for businesses to exploit more market potential.
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| WinMart attracts many customers with a discount program on essential goods on the occasion of its opening. |
In the consumer goods segment, Masan Consumer (MCH) is implementing a premiumization strategy in the second quarter, notably with the “Asian Restaurant” product line under the Omachi brand. In addition, the company continues to maintain its dividend policy with the payout level approved by shareholders for 2025 (maximum 60% equivalent to VND 6,000/share).
For Masan MEATLife (MML), revenue continued to increase in the first quarter of 2025, with the processed meat segment playing a major role. MML currently holds the leading position in animal protein market share at the WinCommerce retail system. In addition to commercial activities, MML is also promoting the application of technology in livestock farming to improve production efficiency. Specifically, this unit has successfully deployed technology to increase sow breeding productivity, helping to expand the herd of pigs for meat by about 24,000 pigs per year.
In the mining sector, Masan High-Tech Materials (MSR) is expected to improve its financial results and escape losses in the second quarter thanks to the recovery in the selling prices of output products such as APT. Some analysts believe that MSR may start to contribute positively to Masan's consolidated profits again this year.
Factors supporting MSN stock in the coming time
In the second half of 2025, a number of policies and market trends are forecast to continue to facilitate the operations of businesses in the consumer - retail industry. Specifically, the extension of the VAT reduction policy until the end of 2026, applying a tax rate of 8% instead of 10% for essential goods, can help support purchasing power and promote domestic consumption. This is a notable factor for businesses that own large-scale consumer - retail ecosystems like Masan.
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| Customers shop for clean meat products at MEATDeli |
Recently, MSCI did not include Vietnam in the list of stock market upgrades. Compared to FTSE Russell, MSCI applies more stringent evaluation criteria. Meanwhile, FTSE Russell is considered one of the most prestigious global organizations in building indexes, including stock indexes, and being upgraded by this organization can contribute to attracting foreign capital flows, especially from large investment funds.
At the National Assembly’s question-and-answer session on June 19, Finance Minister Nguyen Van Thang said that upgrading the stock market is a goal that needs to be achieved in 2025, in order to develop capital mobilization channels for the economy. Accordingly, the market is expected to see improvements to meet the criteria of rating organizations.
Saigon- Hanoi Securities (SHS) estimates that if upgraded, Vietnam could attract about $9 billion from global investment funds, including about $800 million from ETFs tracking the FTSE Russell index, $2 billion from other passive funds, and $4-6 billion from active funds. This capital flow tends to focus on large-cap stocks with high liquidity and room for foreign ownership, characteristics that some stocks like MSN currently meet.
Major securities companies are currently giving positive valuations for MSN shares. Accordingly, VCBS recommends BUY, with a target price of VND93,208/share - 42% higher than the market price at the time of reporting. KBSV values the stock according to the SoTP model at VND100,000/share, with the base scenario including double-digit growth in MCH, WCM, MML.
Securities company | Target price (VND/share) | Recommendation | Valuation Basis / Notes |
Vietcap | 100,000 | BUY | SoTP Method. Growth comes from MCH, WCM, MML; down 7% y/y due to increased group discount (15%). Assumes MSN is undervalued relative to real assets. |
VCBS | 93,208 | BUY | Valuation based on WCM, MCH, MML profit prospects and tax policy supporting domestic consumption. Ecosystem growth and benefit from VAT reduction until 2026. |
KBSV | 100,000 | BUY | SoTP valuation; base case: double-digit growth in WCM, MCH, MML. |
However, analysts also noted a number of factors to watch, including the uneven recovery of domestic consumption, increased competition in the FMCG - retail industry, and geopolitical risks that could affect the supply chain.
The fact that MSN shares have surpassed their 2025 peak reflects the market's recognition of the company's restructuring efforts and operational efficiency. In the context of a changing business environment, maintaining a cautious strategy, focusing on core areas and effectively leveraging supporting macro factors will be the foundation for Masan to maintain sustainable growth momentum.
Source: https://baodautu.vn/chat-xuc-tac-cho-co-phieu-tieu-dung-ban-le-vuot-dinh-nam-2025-d314414.html
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