There are at least three growth scenarios that have been developed by researchers, showing that this is a feasible task, but requires a lot of effort. According to the research team of the School of Economics and Public Management (National Economics University), the most suitable scenario is the “Growth Wave”, with GDP reaching its highest level in the period of 2031-2035 at about 11%-12%/year. The principle of this scenario is “extensive preparation, focused acceleration and efficiency optimization”.
Specifically, from now until 2030 is identified as the preparation stage, with a GDP growth rate of about 8%-10%/year. The period from 2031-2035 is identified as the acceleration stage, with a growth rate that can reach 11%-12%/year; in the next 10 years, the growth rate will gradually decrease, from about 8%-9% in the first 5 years and 6.5%-7.5% in the last 5 years.
The second scenario is “Start strong - consolidate firmly and maintain stability”, with phase 1 (2025-2029) having a growth rate of 11%/year, phase 2 (2030-2037) having a GDP growth rate of 9%/year, phase 3 (2038-2045) with a GDP growth rate of about 7%-8%/year. The fast start-up model can help take advantage of the initial momentum for rapid growth, but also creates great pressure, easily leading to “burnout” - an overload of resources, infrastructure and management apparatus - due to having to handle many tasks simultaneously in a short period of time.
In the remaining scenario, the design logic is “Maintaining the peak - soft landing”, divided into 3 phases, each phase lasts 7 years. In which, the first 7 years GDP growth rate is 11%/year, the next 7 years is 8.5%-9%/year, the last 7 years is 6.5%-7.5%/year. The preparation time is long and the pressure is evenly distributed, but maintaining the growth momentum for a very long time, up to 7 years, is a big challenge. But the deeper issue is the quality of growth, reflected in the quality of life, the practical benefits of the people, taking the people as the center of development.
Declining consumer demand in major markets such as the US and the European Union (EU) could affect exports - an important driver of growth. Trade tensions and high interest rates in the US and many major economies have made global capital costs more expensive, affecting capital flows into Vietnam. Exchange rate fluctuations, especially with the USD, could increase the cost of importing raw materials and adversely affect foreign debt.
By the end of May, the average consumer price index increased by 3.21% compared to the same period last year, showing that although inflation is still under control, we cannot be complacent, because there are still many risk factors that can increase inflation in the second half of the year (fluctuations in energy and input material prices due to geopolitical conflicts; adjustment of public service prices (healthcare, education, electricity) according to the roadmap...). And of course, if inflation increases, growth achievements cannot help improve people's quality of life as desired.
In that context, regardless of which scenario is chosen, the general principles are still to minimize negative fluctuations and better protect people's interests from external risks. With an economy still relying on the main growth drivers of capital and labor, it is extremely necessary to identify scenarios to clearly see the path to take, the challenges to face and the opportunities ahead.
Source: https://www.sggp.org.vn/xac-dinh-kich-ban-tang-truong-post798807.html
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