By the end of 2023, China's education industry will see an increase in kindergarten and nursery school closures and mergers nationwide.
According to data from the Ministry of Education of China, in 2023, China will have only 274,400 kindergartens, 20,400 fewer than in 2021. The closures are believed to be largely due to the falling birth rate. The number of newborns in a year is one of the factors that predict the number of children attending kindergarten three years later.
In 2023, there will be only 9 million babies born, 1,600,000 fewer than in 2021. The largest number of school closures will be in rural areas, areas with a large population migrating to urban areas.
Qiao Jinzhong, a professor at the Institute of Higher Education Research under the Department of Education at Beijing Normal University, predicts that China will need only about 92,800 primary schools by 2035, down from 144,200 in 2020. Meanwhile, the demand for middle schools will decrease by 3,800 schools to 47,900.
Ding Changfa, an economics professor at Xiamen University, pointed out that top universities will have no problems with enrollment, while the most affected institutions will be private schools, including vocational colleges and universities. He added that some public colleges that lack distinctive features and competitiveness may also have difficulty in enrollment.
Another point worth noting is that most of the kindergartens that have closed were privately run due to lack of students and/or substandard standards. Recently, China has increased the construction of public and non-profit kindergartens to encourage young people to have children. The pressure of tuition fees and finding kindergartens for children has become less severe in most major cities as the Chinese government partially subsidizes the cost of preschool education.
The increase in kindergarten closures means that more kindergarten teachers are looking for other jobs. According to Professor Qiao, by 2035, the country will have a surplus of about 1.5 million primary school teachers and 370,000 secondary school teachers based on current teacher-student ratios.
In contrast to kindergartens, demand for child care services for children under 3 years old is currently far outstripping supply. According to the National Health Commission, by 2023, China will have about 40 million children under 3 years old, while only 5.5% of them will attend kindergartens, while more than 35% of families with toddlers will want to use child care services. Experts say the best solution for surplus kindergartens and teachers is to open more child care services for children under 3 years old.
Minh Hoa (t/h according to VTV, Tin Tuc newspaper)
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