In the energy market, according to MXV, yesterday's trading session witnessed a sharp decline in the energy market, when all 5 key commodities in the group fell sharply in the context of concerns about the risk of supply disruption from the Middle East having almost been eliminated.
At the end of the session, both Brent and WTI crude oil prices recorded a decrease of more than 6%. WTI crude oil prices fell to 64.37 USD/barrel, down 6.04%, while Brent crude oil prices also fell below the 70 USD/barrel threshold, stopping at 67.14 USD/barrel, down 6.07%. These are the lowest prices of both commodities in the past two weeks.
The main driver of the sell-off in the oil market came from the easing of tensions between Israel and Iran, especially after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire agreement between the two sides, aiming to end the conflict. Yesterday, both Israel and Iran issued statements expressing their goodwill to accept this ceasefire agreement.
Although the parties later accused each other of violating the ceasefire, this move still helped the market relieve concerns about the possibility of supply disruptions from many Persian Gulf countries, including many major crude oil producers in the world such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq or Iran itself.
Most Persian Gulf countries rely on the Strait of Hormuz, south of Iran, to export energy products to international markets. Amid escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, this vital route has repeatedly faced the risk of being blocked, raising concerns about the possibility of disruption to global oil and gas supplies. However, over the past two weeks, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has remained stable, with no reports of serious disruptions.
In addition, oil prices are also under pressure from not-so-positive signals about the health of the US economy . According to newly released data, the US consumer confidence index in June fell to 93 points, significantly lower than the 98.4 points recorded in May. Analysts say the main reason comes from concerns about the job market as well as the existing macroeconomic instability, thereby leading to a decrease in expectations about future energy demand in the world's largest economy.
The market is waiting for data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)'s weekly petroleum report, scheduled to be released today, to get more information about gasoline consumption in the US, especially when the peak travel season of Americans continues.
For the industrial raw material group, the industrial raw material market did not escape the general trend when most of the key items in the group decreased sharply. In particular, the price of Arabica coffee decreased by more than 4.6% to 6,864 USD/ton, the price of Robusta coffee also turned around and lost more than 5.6% to 3,682 USD/ton. According to MXV, frost concerns have eased and abundant supply continued to put great pressure on coffee prices in yesterday's trading session.
Weather forecasts in Brazil show that today, the highest temperature in São Paulo and Minas Gerais states will be around 22°C. The warmer weather conditions have eased concerns about frost affecting the quality of coffee crops.
In Dak Lak , the largest coffee growing region in Vietnam, the weather has been changing significantly, directly affecting coffee production. The average temperature over the past 7 days has been 25°C, significantly lower than the long-term average of 26°C, reflecting a clear cooling trend compared to normal weather conditions. The region recorded the lowest temperature of 25°C in 2011. The average rainfall over the past 7 days has been 7.82mm, slightly above the long-term average of 6.55mm, indicating a slight increase in rainfall during this period. However, this figure is still lower than the 13.17mm recorded in 2011, the highest ever recorded during the same period.
Safras & Mercado estimated that nearly 43% of Brazil’s new crop had been harvested as of last week, down from 48% at the same time last year. With a forecast of a total new crop of 65.5 million bags, the report showed that about 28.2 million bags of coffee had been harvested, including about 15 million bags of Robusta. The total Robusta output is expected to reach 25 million bags, contributing to a sharp increase in exports of this commodity in June.
According to the latest updated data from Cecafe as of June 24, Brazil's Robusta coffee exports reached 18,200 tons, one and a half times higher than the entire month of May. In addition, according to MXV's calculations, the amount of coffee for export, mostly Robusta, in Vietnam is still abundant, enough to maintain export growth compared to the same period last year until the new harvest in October.
In addition, according to a report from Rabobank, global coffee demand is expected to decline by 0.5% in 2025, mainly due to rising costs. The report also forecasts that the global coffee supply-demand balance will shift from a slight deficit of 900,000 bags in the 2024-2025 crop year to a surplus of 1.4 million bags in the 2025-2026 crop year. Data from Eurostat shows that the EU's coffee imports in the first four months of the year fell by 9.7% compared to the same period last year, reaching 880,000 tons.
Source: https://baodaknong.vn/thi-truong-hang-hoa-25-6-chim-sau-trong-sac-do-256603.html
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