It is predicted that the market will continue its upward trend in the coming time and is expected to reach 1,600-1,650 points from now until the end of 2025.
Hanoi Moi Newspaper reporter talked with Deputy General Director of Vietnam Construction Securities Joint Stock Company Do Bao Ngoc about market forecast in the coming time.
- What factors have supported the positive developments of our country's stock market in recent times, sir?
- The domestic stock market has just experienced a positive period. At the end of the trading session on July 25, the VN-Index increased by 10.11 points (0.66%) to 1,531.13 points, marking the 6th consecutive week of increase.
Thus, this week, the VN-Index surpassed the 1,500-point mark, setting a new peak in 2025 and approaching the historical peak in 2022 (1,536 points). There are many factors supporting the market, first of all in terms of macroeconomics . Gross domestic product (GDP) in the first 6 months of 2025 grew by 7.52%, the highest level in the same period in the 2011-2025 period.
On the basis of loose monetary policy, low interest rates, the Government prioritizes economic growth, thus promoting credit growth. Next, the Government strongly promotes the disbursement of public investment capital. In the first 6 months of 2025, the disbursement rate of public investment capital is higher than the same period last year. In addition, the Government implements a series of policies to support businesses and the economy, such as tax and fee exemption and reduction; tax and land rent extension.
Notably, Vietnam and the United States have reached an agreement on reciprocal taxes. The tax rate for Vietnam is relatively reasonable compared to the general level of other countries. Therefore, Vietnam can maintain foreign direct investment. Foreign investors have bought strongly after the information about tariffs.
In addition, investors expect the Vietnamese stock market to be upgraded to an emerging stock market in September. With these factors, positive cash flow will return to the market, helping the market to rise.
There are a number of groups of stocks that strongly support the market to surpass the 1,500-point mark, notably Vingroup stocks, especially VIC and VHM. Vingroup stocks fell sharply before rising sharply again this year. Businesses in the Vingroup ecosystem have seen clear improvements in their business operations recently. VinFast has started selling more cars in the Vietnamese market, helping to improve its financial situation. Vinhomes has always been the "golden goose" for this group...
- Foreign investors have returned to net buying. Besides the tariff factor, what other factors do you think are there?
- After the US announced the corresponding tax rate on Vietnamese imported goods, foreign investors increased their net buying. This group has net bought about 10,000 billion VND since the beginning of July, which is a large buying force in a short period of time. Besides, there is the expectation of upgrading the market. After many efforts, the possibility of upgrading the Vietnamese stock market in September is very high.
In countries with prospects for market upgrade, foreign investment funds often take the lead by increasing purchases in the stock market. These are factors that attract indirect investment capital back to the Vietnamese stock market in July.
- The VN-Index surpassed the 1,500-point mark in the session on July 22. Do you see any similarities between this time and the period at the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022 when the VN-Index reached its historical high of 1,536.45 points?
- I see similarities in the strong cash flow into the market, but the market story is different. In 2021 and early 2022, the economy was affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, most industries and businesses could not operate normally, so cash flow poured into the stock market, helping the market grow strongly. Meanwhile, in this period, the economy operated normally, the economic outlook was more expected. Domestic and international investors both believed in the stock market.
- So, what is your forecast for the market next week and until the end of 2025?
- In my opinion, the supporting factors will continue to boost the market in the coming time. Therefore, the upward trend of the market in the medium and long term is quite clear. At the beginning of 2025, many forecasts said that the VN-Index could reach 1,400-1,500 points this year and up to now the market has reached that mark. With the strong market growth and increased liquidity in recent times, I think the market can reach 1,600-1,650 points from now until the end of the year. Of course, in the short term, after the market reaches a high near the old peak, there will be fluctuations and adjustments. Those adjustments are opportunities for new investors.
Therefore, investors have reason to pay attention to the market in the coming time. When investing, choose the time, focus on finding businesses and sectors with good growth opportunities. The banking and securities industry will be the market leaders this year. Or other large stock groups in the infrastructure construction and construction materials sectors benefit from public investment, and groups related to technology and chemicals are the groups that will improve their business well in the coming time. Investors should find good stocks in those industries to invest.
Thank you very much!
Source: https://hanoimoi.vn/thi-truong-chung-khoan-se-tiep-da-tang-710455.html
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