Second half of 2025: ENSO remains neutral, weather is unstable and unpredictable

In the second half of 2025, many dangerous weather patterns continue to be warned nationwide, such as heat waves, heavy rains, storms, and severe cold. ENSO remains neutral.

Many extreme weather events are likely to occur in the second half of 2025.

The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has just released a seasonal climate forecast and warning bulletin nationwide, updating weather trends from August 2025 to January 2026.

Accordingly, many dangerous weather patterns continue to be warned, such as heat waves, heavy rains, storms and severe cold. ENSO remains neutral throughout the forecast period.

Experts say that a neutral ENSO state can make the weather more unpredictable, as there is no strong influence like El Nino or La Nina. In recent months, many dangerous weather phenomena have occurred consecutively, causing damage to people and property, greatly affecting production and life in many localities.

Typically, in June-July 2025, there were 2 storms and 1 tropical depression in the East Sea. Although it was the first storm of the season, the flood disaster caused by storm No. 1 Wutip was assessed as unusual and extreme, rare in the history of hydrometeorology in the Central region.

It is forecasted that from August to October 2025, in the East Sea, there will be about 6-7 storms/tropical depressions, of which 2-3 are likely to make landfall in our country, a level approximately equal to the average of many years.

In the context of the impact of climate change, experts say that many unfavorable factors can cause strong and very strong storms to appear, with a sudden increase in intensity.

Also during the period from August to October, moderate and heavy rains are likely to appear concentrated in the North in August and September; and in the Central region in September and October. Heavy rains can cause the risk of flash floods and landslides in mountainous areas and flooding in low-lying areas.

At the same time, heat waves will be concentrated in the Northern region, the area from Thanh Hoa to Hue and the South Central Coast until August. From September 2025, heat waves will gradually decrease (the number of hot days is likely to be lower than the average of many years in the same period).

Cold air will gradually become stronger from around October 2025.

During this period, the average temperature is approximately the same as many years. Total rainfall nationwide is forecast to be at an average level, except for the coastal areas of the Northeast, Thanh Hoa to Quang Ngai in September-October, where rainfall is 10-30% higher.

Cold air to increase in intensity from November 2025

In a further forecast, the meteorological agency said that from November 2025 to January 2026, storms/tropical depressions operating in the East Sea and affecting our country are likely to be at a level approximately equal to the average of many years (average in the East Sea 2.9 storms, 1.1 storms making landfall).

During the forecast period, it is necessary to be on guard against moderate and heavy rains in the area from Ha Tinh to Quang Ngai and the eastern part of Gia Lai to Lam Dong provinces in November-December 2025.

Notably, cold air will increase in intensity and frequency from November; severe cold is likely to occur at approximately the average level compared to the same period.

Total rainfall in the area from Nghe An to Lam Dong in November and December is likely to be 10-25% higher than the average. In January 2026, nationwide rainfall will generally be approximately the average.

In particular, the meteorological agency warned that in the second half of this year, there is a possibility of extreme weather phenomena such as thunderstorms, tornadoes, lightning and strong gusts of wind occurring nationwide, concentrated in the months of August-September and November-December 2025.

At the same time, there is a risk of flash floods and landslides in the mountainous areas of the North and North Central regions in August and September. Flooding in the Central and Central Highlands regions may occur in October and December. Frost and frost affect public health, crops and livestock, etc.

The meteorological agency recommends that localities, authorities and people closely monitor climate forecasts and warnings to proactively respond and minimize damage caused by natural disasters.

vietnamnet.vn

Source: https://baolaocai.vn/nua-cuoi-nam-2025-enso-van-trung-tinh-thoi-tiet-nhieu-bat-on-va-kho-luong-post648858.html