Inflation in 2025 could be at 3.4-4.2%

This forecast was made by experts at the workshop "Market and price developments in Vietnam in the first 6 months of the year and forecast for the whole year 2025" organized by the Price Management Department and the Academy of Finance (Ministry of Finance) on the morning of July 9.

Data from the General Statistics Office ( Ministry of Finance ) shows that the average consumer price index (CPI) in the first 6 months of 2025 increased by 3.27% over the same period last year, higher than the average of the 2015-2024 period of 2.81%. Core inflation is at 3.16%.

Conference scene. Photo: TH

Expert Nguyen Ngoc Tuyen, former Director of the Institute of Economics and Finance (Academy of Finance) said that this increase in the consumer price index still follows the general trend as in previous years, prices increase during Tet due to increased shopping demand of people, after that, buying and selling activities and prices gradually return to normal.

Many experts believe that in the second half of this year, inflationary pressure is not expected to be high due to factors causing prices to increase and decrease alternately.

Regarding factors causing price increases, in the first 6 months of 2025, the USD/VND exchange rate increased relatively strongly. In addition, money supply and credit increasing faster than nominal GDP growth rate may put pressure on prices in the coming time.

Adjusting the prices of services managed by the State in the direction of correctly and fully calculating all factors and costs also affects the increase in the consumer price index...

However, many factors help to control inflation, such as abundant domestic supply of goods; prices of basic goods are on a downward trend. From the 2025-2026 school year, students from kindergarten to high school in public schools nationwide will be exempted from tuition fees...

Dr. Le Quoc Phuong, Former Deputy Director of the Center for Industry and Trade Information ( Ministry of Industry and Trade ) forecasts that the average CPI in 2025 compared to 2024 will increase by 3.8% - 4.2%.

Dr. Nguyen Duc Do, Deputy Director of the Institute of Economics and Finance, forecasts that the average inflation for the whole year of 2025 will be around 3.4% if the State does not strongly adjust the prices of medical and educational services...

Also within the framework of the workshop, Associate Professor Dr. Vu Duy Vinh (Academy of Finance) said that the Vietnam-US reciprocal tax negotiations not only help Vietnam avoid risks, but also open up opportunities for economic development, improve the investment environment and participate more deeply in the global supply chain.

To make the most of opportunities, Vietnam needs to proactively transform its production structure, promote localization and enhance transparency in tracing the origin of goods; diversify export markets and promote internal strength to be able to flexibly adapt to external policy changes.

Source: https://hanoimoi.vn/lam-phat-nam-2025-co-the-o-muc-3-4-4-2-708502.html