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| FDI projects in Quang Ngai have created jobs and income for many local communities. (Photo: Hoang Hieu/VNA) |
According to the report of the General Statistics Office, Ministry of Finance , GDP growth reached 7.52% over the same period last year - the highest level for the first 6 months of the year since 2011; total export turnover reached 219.83 billion USD, up 14.4%; registered foreign direct investment (FDI) reached over 21.51 billion USD, up 32.6%, while realized FDI reached 11.72 billion USD, the highest level in the first half of the 2021 - 2025 period.
Thanks to these positive results, many domestic and foreign experts have commented that Vietnam is going "against the wind" by maintaining strong growth momentum while many major economies are still struggling to recover.
Reporting at the "Online Conference between the Government and localities on economic growth scenarios for 2025 and tasks and solutions to achieve the growth target for 2025" held on July 16 in Hanoi, Minister of Finance Nguyen Van Thang said that the Ministry has consulted on developing two economic growth scenarios for 2025.
Accordingly, scenario 1 determines that the growth rate for the whole year of 2025 will reach 8%. Specifically, the growth rate in the third quarter will reach 8.3% compared to the same period, equivalent to the scenario in Resolution 154/NQ-CP; the fourth quarter will reach 8.5% (0.1% higher than the scenario). The GDP scale for the whole year will be about 508 billion USD, and the GDP per capita will be about 5,000 USD.
With scenario 2 (full-year growth of 8.3-8.5% in 2025), the Ministry estimates that growth in the third quarter will reach 8.9-9.2% over the same period (0.6-0.9% higher than the scenario); the fourth quarter will reach 9.1-9.5% (0.7-1.1% higher than the scenario). The GDP scale in 2025 will be around 510 billion USD, with GDP per capita around 5,020 USD.
Accordingly, the Ministry of Finance recommends that the Government and the Prime Minister direct and manage ministries, branches and localities to strive to implement scenario 2 (8.3-8.5%), creating momentum for growth in 2026 to reach 10% or more.
Corresponding to the above two scenarios, the Ministry of Finance has projected growth scenarios for localities, corporations, general corporations, and state-owned enterprises. Accordingly, localities need to achieve a growth rate in 2025 higher than the target in Resolution No. 25/NQ-CP, especially the leading localities, the growth drivers of the whole country, such as: Hanoi increases by 8.5% (0.5% higher), Ho Chi Minh City 8.5% (0.4% higher), Quang Ninh 12.5% (1% higher), Thai Nguyen 8% (0.5% higher) ...; corporations, general corporations, and state-owned enterprises need to grow about 0.5% higher than the target at the beginning of the year.
However, in the context that the Vietnamese economy is still facing many difficulties and problems, what should Vietnam do to not only grow faster, but also more sustainably, gradually and steadily achieving the growth target of 10% or more in the coming years?
Many economic experts believe that this is a turning point, requiring Vietnam to make breakthrough decisions, with a strong spirit of reform and more decisive action.
According to Dr. Nguyen Si Dung, former Deputy Head of the National Assembly Office, Vietnam needs to start with a breakthrough in institutional thinking. Institutions are not only the legal system and legal documents, but also the sum of formal and informal rules regulating social behavior; at the same time, in the short term, it is necessary to focus on amending a number of fundamental laws that are still bottlenecks in development such as the Land Law, Investment Law, Enterprise Law, Planning Law, etc. to ensure the sustainability of the institution, Vietnam also needs to develop a mechanism for policy review and effective power monitoring.
Economic expert Dr. Nguyen Bich Lam, former General Director of the General Statistics Office, said that the Government, together with the National Assembly, needs to urgently institutionalize and issue policies and solutions to quickly and effectively implement the Four Strategic Pillars, creating a solid legal basis for economic sectors to develop transparently and compete fairly; transform the growth model; enhance the ability to respond to global fluctuations, enhance the independence and autonomy of the economy; and promote economic growth in a modern and sustainable direction.
In particular, in the context of operating a two-level administrative apparatus, reorganizing the country, ministries, branches and localities in preparation for the 14th National Party Congress, the Government needs to focus on directing the disbursement of all public investment capital in 2025. Implemented public investment capital will be one of the important growth drivers of Vietnam's economy in 2025, because the growth driver based on final consumption recovers slowly, depends on and lags behind production activities.
Final consumption accounts for nearly 2/3 of the economy's GDP, is the driving force for regular, long-term growth, has the largest scale, has the strongest impact, and is most important for economic growth. Increased final consumption demand means solving difficulties in finding markets for the business sector, solving jobs for workers, and reducing dependence on world aggregate demand.
“The government and localities need to grasp trends, take advantage of opportunities, and maximize consumption promotion factors, which are especially important solutions for economic growth in 2025 and the following years,” said Dr. Nguyen Bich Lam.
At the same time, the Government directed ministries, sectors and the business community to effectively exploit and take advantage of FTAs to increase exports to replace the decline in the US market. Businesses and industry associations need to prepare different response scenarios and seek solutions to maintain competitiveness in the US market.
On the other hand, the Government needs to have a strategy to shift the structure of exported goods; focus on developing service exports to deal with the current situation of the economy always having a trade deficit in services, especially the service trade deficit in recent years has always been high; at the same time, restructure the economy, create new superior economic models, such as digital economy, green economy, circular economy, in line with the development trend of the world economy, improve productivity, quality, efficiency, competitiveness and create new momentum for development.
From the perspective of the business community, Mr. Dau Anh Tuan, Deputy General Secretary, Head of the Legal Department of the Vietnam Federation of Commerce and Industry (VCCI), proposed that in order to promote rapid and sustainable growth, Vietnam needs to innovate its state management methods and continue institutional reform to create more favorable conditions for businesses in production, business activities as well as in the innovation process. Along with that, improve the quality of policy implementation. Issuing reasonable policies is necessary, but the decisive factor lies in how those policies are implemented in practice.
To develop a green and sustainable economy, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh has recently signed and issued Directive No. 20/CT-TTg on a number of urgent and drastic tasks to prevent and resolve environmental pollution. Accordingly, one of the contents proposed by the Prime Minister is: urgently build and complete the national environmental database, integrate and synchronize it into the National Data Center. In the immediate future, focus on completing the automatic and continuous environmental monitoring database in concentrated production, business and service areas, industrial clusters and production, business and service establishments with large emissions sources, environmental quality in large cities...
Therefore, sustainable economic development, according to Deputy Minister of Finance Tran Quoc Phuong, innovation is no longer a choice, but an inevitable trend for all countries that want to develop in the world. However, this trend is facing many difficulties and challenges, one of which is resources.
To address this challenge, a single country or business cannot solve it, but requires broad cooperation; especially cooperation between the public and private sectors. Therefore, cooperation between the public and private sectors is needed to achieve higher goals, especially the goal of sustainable development. “We will amend and supplement legal regulations more openly to encourage innovation, digital transformation, science, technology and especially mobilize resources from the private sector through public-private partnerships to achieve green growth goals,” said Deputy Minister Tran Quoc Phuong.
At the Conference "Online Conference between the Government and localities on the economic growth scenario for 2025 and tasks and solutions to achieve the growth target for 2025", the Government gave a specific figure that the whole country needs to achieve a growth rate of about 8.3-8.5% in 2025.
“This is a very difficult goal and has many great challenges, but we cannot avoid doing it and this goal is not an impossible goal. If we cannot achieve this goal this year, it will affect the growth target for the coming years and the two 100-year goals that have been set,” Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh emphasized.
According to Tin Tuc Newspaper
https://baotintuc.vn/kinh-te/kinh-te-viet-nam-nam-2025-tang-truong-gdp-8385-tao-the-va-luc-moi-20250717171616606.htm
Source: https://thoidai.com.vn/kinh-te-viet-nam-nam-2025-tang-truong-gdp-83-85-tao-the-va-luc-moi-214902.html
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