Gasoline prices today (June 9): Torn between recovery expectations and oversupply pressure

World oil prices extended the upward momentum of the last trading session of last week. Domestically, gasoline prices may continue to be adjusted upward this week.

According to Oilprice, at 5:15 a.m. on June 9 (Vietnam time), Brent oil price increased by 0.16 USD/barrel (up 0.24%), to 66.63 USD/barrel and WTI oil price increased by 0.17 USD/barrel (up 0.26%), to 64.75 USD/barrel.

According to Reuters, last week, world oil prices recorded an increase, after two consecutive weeks of decline. Overall for the week, Brent oil prices increased by 2.75%, while WTI oil prices increased by 4.9%.

The main reason may come from the positive US jobs report and the resumption of trade negotiations between the US and China, which have raised expectations of a recovery in the world's two largest economies .

However, according to technical analysis from Oilprice, the current uptrend is still very fragile as the driving force mainly comes from psychological and speculative factors, while the actual long-term supply-demand foundation still poses many challenges. Experts warn that without a boost from macro policies or unexpected geopolitical events, oil prices are unlikely to break through the threshold of 82 - 83 USD/barrel in the short term.

World oil prices recorded an increase last week. Illustration photo: Reuters

One of the main factors putting pressure on oil prices today is OPEC+'s policy of increasing production, in a context where the market has not shown signs of strong recovery in demand. According to an update from Reuters, OPEC+ has increased total production by about 1.37 million barrels/day since April 2025. In July alone, OPEC+ announced that it will increase production by 411,000 barrels/day.

The move, while aimed at stabilizing market share and ensuring long-term supply, runs counter to the slowing demand in developed economies such as the US and Europe. HSBC’s recent business report said that if this trend continues, the market could face a supply glut of up to 0.9 million barrels per day by 2026.

It is worth noting that the OPEC+ supply expansion coincides with a decline in US crude oil exports, due to the loss of price competitiveness. According to Reuters, US crude oil exports fell from 4 million barrels per day in April to about 3.8 million barrels per day in May, reflecting fierce competition in the global market.

Data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the middle of last week showed that gasoline inventories in the country increased by 5.2 million barrels, while distillate inventories increased by 4.2 million barrels - much higher than previously forecast. This reflects that US gasoline consumption has not yet reached a stable recovery, even in the summer, which is expected to grow strongly due to tourism and transportation demand.

In addition to economic factors, geopolitical developments in the Middle East, Europe and the Black Sea region have also contributed to oil prices. Drone attacks on oil infrastructure in Russia, nuclear tensions between the US and Iran, as well as large wildfires in Canada causing localized supply disruptions have all contributed to the rise in oil prices over the past week.

However, according to Oilprice, experts assess that these factors are only temporary and will hardly create a sustainable effect if not accompanied by a clear change in global supply and demand.

Based on current data, analysts say oil prices are likely to continue to increase slightly next week. A sharp increase scenario will only occur if major events such as prolonged supply disruptions or a breakthrough in international trade negotiations occur. On the contrary, if US oil inventories continue to increase and OPEC+ does not adjust production plans, oil prices may fall in the coming weeks.

Domestic gasoline prices

Domestic retail prices of gasoline on June 9, specifically as follows:

E5 RON 92 gasoline is not higher than 19,263 VND/liter.

RON 95-III gasoline is not higher than VND 19,698/liter.

Diesel oil is not higher than 17,420 VND/liter.

Kerosene is not higher than 17,284 VND/liter.

Fuel oil is not higher than 16,178 VND/kg.

The above domestic retail prices of gasoline and oil will be adjusted by the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Trade in the price management session on the afternoon of June 12. World oil prices continue to fluctuate complicatedly, affecting domestic gasoline and oil prices. This week, domestic gasoline and oil prices may continue to be adjusted upward.

In the most recent adjustment, the price of E5 RON 92 gasoline increased by 67 VND/liter, RON 95-III gasoline increased by 133 VND/liter, diesel increased by 284 VND/liter, and kerosene increased by 176 VND/liter. However, the price of fuel oil decreased by 86 VND/kg.

Since the beginning of the year, domestic gasoline prices have undergone 23 adjustment sessions, including 9 decreases, 9 increases and 5 opposite sessions.

Source: https://baolangson.vn/gia-xang-dau-hom-nay-9-6-giang-co-giua-ky-vong-phuc-hoi-va-ap-luc-du-cung-5049457.html