Big money flows into bitcoin, price can reach 200,000 USD?

(Dan Tri) - Bitcoin is being pushed up in price by scarce supply and strong cash flow from ETFs. But will that be enough for this cryptocurrency to double its peak in less than 6 months?

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around $105,000/BTC, attracting special attention. Many experts predict that the price of this cryptocurrency can reach $200,000 before the end of this year, equivalent to an increase of nearly 90% in just half a year.

It may sound “too dreamy”, but in reality, this price can be achieved thanks to two main drivers: increasingly scarce supply and strong demand from institutional investors.

Supply shortage - a factor for sustainable price increase

The bitcoin network's halving mechanism (reward reduction for miners in half) causes the number of new coins created to decrease sharply every four years. Since the last halving in April 2024, the number of coins issued annually has decreased from about 328,500 to about 164,000 coins.

Currently, more than 19.9 million coins of the 21 million limit have been mined. This means that the supply of bitcoin is only increasing by less than 0.8% per year and will be even smaller after the next halving in 2028. The scarcity makes investors tend to buy early before prices get too high.

A trickle of new bitcoin supply is facing a huge wave of demand (Photo: Getty).

Institutional money is “sucking up” bitcoin

Bitcoin ETFs have now attracted a total of more than $46 billion, with a net inflow of $1.8 billion in just six days in mid-June. ETFs, listed companies, and institutional investors hold about 6% of the total circulating supply of bitcoin. An estimated 360,000 coins, priced at around $105,000 per BTC, have been withdrawn from the market — more than two years of new issuance.

If capital continues to flow in at even half the current pace, the supply could be squeezed by another 2-3% by 2026. As the number of people willing to sell plummets while buying power remains, bitcoin prices are likely to be pushed up naturally without the need for speculative fever.

Macroeconomics support: Inflation cools down, legal clarity is clearer

Macro factors are also favoring bitcoin's bullish momentum.

In the US, core inflation fell to its lowest level since 2023 in May. The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged since March and many investors believe it will cut rates later this year. In a low-interest-rate environment, scarce non-yielding assets like bitcoin become more attractive to investors.

At the same time, the legal framework for cryptocurrencies in Europe is becoming clearer. The European Union (EU) has started licensing major exchanges under the MiCA regulation since mid-June. MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets) is a comprehensive legal framework issued by the European Union to regulate the crypto-asset market, including bitcoin.

This is an important step that paves the way for pension funds and institutional investors in Europe, which have been hesitant, to boldly enter the market.

Potential risks

However, the journey to $200,000/BTC will not be easy. Geopolitical shocks, such as escalating tensions in the Middle East or Asia, or unpredictable US trade policies, could trigger a wave of flight from risk assets, including bitcoin.

In addition, regulatory risks remain a major “blind spot” in the US. Tax regulations and crypto custody are still being debated by the US Congress . If an unfavorable law is passed, capital flows into ETFs may slow down or increase investment costs, thereby reducing demand.

Reaching $200,000/BTC - Ambitious but Doable

Barring a major shock, many analysts believe that a target of $200,000 for bitcoin by 2026 is entirely feasible. If ETFs continue to attract about $50 billion before the end of this year, they will take about 475,000 coins out of the market, equivalent to more than 3 years of new issuance.

And so, even if it doesn’t hit $200,000 by a certain date, bitcoin is still proving increasingly attractive to long-term investors. “It’s not whether the price will hit a certain level at a certain time, but whether you believe in the long-term value of bitcoin,” Motley Fool said.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/dong-tien-lon-do-vao-bitcoin-gia-co-the-can-moc-200000-usd-20250623123748876.htm