China is about to surpass the US in the space race

As a graduate student in science and technology policy at Arizona State University, Jonathan Roll spent time researching China’s burgeoning space program. Three years later, when he was asked to revisit the field as a full-time research analyst, he was surprised by the country’s rapid development.

A model of the Long March rocket is displayed at the China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition. (Source: Bloomberg)

“I thought I had a pretty good grasp of the situation when I was in graduate school,” Roll says, “But now, almost everything needs updating—or has changed completely. They are learning from the Western model of how to drive innovation, and they are accelerating that.”

'Redshift' report shows China's rise

Roll is co-author of the “Redshift” report, sponsored by the U.S. Commercial Spaceflight Federation, which found that China is not only catching up but also leading in many areas of space, from commercial to civilian.

“The new space race will not be won by a single achievement, but by sustained commitment and long-term adaptability,” the report says.

China's operational Tiangong space station is located in low Earth orbit. (Source: Getty Images)

China's significant advances can be pointed out as follows:

Investment in commercial space increased from $164 million (2016) to $2.86 billion (2024).
China has six active spaceports, expanding its ground system to compete with SpaceX.
More than 12 private rocket launch companies have raised more than $3 billion since 2020.
The “Silk Road” initiative creates more than 80 space projects abroad, eroding US influence.
Tiangong Station could replace the ISS after 2030.
China is making steady progress in exploring the Moon and Mars, unlike NASA's Artemis program.
Space research centers are springing up in Shanghai, Beijing, Chengdu, Xi'an, Guangzhou, Jinan...

An image shows a Chinese rocket about to be launched into space. (Source: Galaxy Space)

America needs to act to maintain its position.

Dave Cavossa, president of the Commercial Spaceflight Federation, said the U.S. still leads in many areas, but that advantage is shrinking. “If it weren’t for SpaceX, China would have already surpassed the U.S. in launch volume,” he said.

Cavossa suggested that the United States needs to promote the commercial space industry, where private capital and innovation are driving growth. He praised the “Enabling Competition in the Commercial Space Industry” executive order signed in August 2025, which simplifies the licensing process.

Cavossa warned the U.S. government against cutting back on purchases of commercial satellite communications and remote sensing data, and called for ensuring a smooth transition from the ISS to commercial destinations in low Earth orbit (LEO).

The bottom line, Cavossa said, is that now is the last chance for the United States to invest in a space industry that will allow it to maintain its lead over China. Otherwise, China will soon reach parity and potentially overtake it.

Minh Hoan

Source: https://vtcnews.vn/trung-quoc-se-som-vuot-my-trong-cuoc-dua-khong-gian-ar965813.html