International rice prices have fallen to their lowest in eight years, putting heavy pressure on farmers in many Asian countries, as record production and the lifting of an export ban by India, the world’s largest rice exporter, has created a supply glut.
According to the latest data, the price of Thailand's 5% broken white rice - the global reference index - is currently at approximately $372.50/ton, down 26% from the end of 2024 and hitting the lowest since 2017.
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said the global rice price index has fallen 13% since the beginning of this year.
“There is simply too much rice in the warehouses,” said Samarendu Mohanty, director of the Centre for Sustainable Agriculture and Development Studies at Telangana State Agricultural University in India. “Last year, India’s rice production was a record. And the crop that has just been planted will be another record.”
The sharp drop in rice prices marks a sharp reversal from early 2024, when the commodity surged to its highest level since 2008, following India's export restrictions, which led many countries to rush to stockpile and adopt protectionist policies.
At the same time, import demand has weakened significantly. Indonesia, one of the world’s largest rice buyers, bought heavily in 2024 and has not returned to the market since the beginning of this year. The Philippines has also suspended imports until October 2025 to protect domestic rice prices during the main harvest season.
Mr. Oscar Tjakra, an expert from Rabobank, said that in addition to India, large supplies from Thailand and Vietnam also contributed to bringing global rice output this crop year to a record level.
While low prices hurt farmers – especially in countries without support policies like India – consumers in importing countries benefit as food costs fall, helping to cool inflation.
Mr. Mohanty predicts that rice prices could fall another 10% due to the lack of buyers. As of May 2025, the Indian government ’s stockpile is estimated to contain about 60 million tons of rice – 15 million tons higher than the multi-year average. To clear the stockpile before the new harvest, the Indian government has been selling on the domestic market and even diverting some of the rice into ethanol production at below consumer prices.
“We are entering a period of low commodity prices, and I don’t see this trend reversing for at least the next two years — barring a war or some other major shock,” said Mohanty.
Source: https://baolaocai.vn/gia-gao-the-gioi-thap-nhat-8-nam-post879333.html
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