Robusta coffee prices increased by more than 300 USD in a week, the market trend is strong and long-term increase.

Vietnam's coffee industry will benefit from price. Global robusta coffee prices will fluctuate in a strong and prolonged upward trend due to concerns about scarce supply from Vietnam, according to Bloomberg.

Coffee price today 8/18/2024

Global coffee prices have been rising very well for robusta. Recent strong coffee gains have been driven by expectations of a Fed rate cut, a weaker US dollar and reports of frost affecting Brazil’s current harvest.

Domestic coffee prices continued to decline this week, trading in the range of 117,300 - 118,100 VND/kg. In the past 6 days, the coffee market has decreased by about 300 - 500 VND/kg, the highest transaction level currently recorded at 118,100 VND/kg. Domestic transactions are recorded as gloomy, with weak purchasing power.

During the week, Robusta coffee prices increased sharply in 4 sessions. September delivery futures increased by a total of 496 USD/ton, interspersed with a session of 157 USD/ton decrease, so Robusta prices increased by a total of 339 USD/ton. In the past 2 weeks, Robusta coffee increased by more than 400 USD/ton.

Arabica coffee futures for the same period on the New York Mercantile Exchange reached over 240 US cents/lb, down 3.2% from last month but up 53% from the same period last year. Pressure from the Brazilian harvest has cooled Arabica prices in recent weeks. However, recent estimates show that Brazil's coffee output is lower than initially expected and reports also paint a less optimistic picture for the 2025-2026 harvest.

Safras & Mercado recently cut its estimate for Brazil’s coffee crop this year by more than 4 million bags to 66 million. Rabobank similarly revised its forecast for Brazil’s production down to 67.1 million bags from its previous estimate of 69.8 million. StoneX, a leading US financial services firm, also lowered its forecast for Brazil’s production to 65.9 million bags, down 1.7% from its initial estimate in February.

Meanwhile, Brazilian media reported that frost has affected some areas of Alta Mogiana (São Paulo) and Cerrado Mineiro, the country's second most important arabica coffee producing region.

Domestic coffee prices increased by VND300/kg at key purchasing locations at the end of the week (August 17). (Source: dallas.culturemap)

According to World & Vietnam , at the end of this weekend's trading session (August 16), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange continued to increase sharply, with the September 2024 delivery term increasing by 94 USD, trading at 4,665 USD/ton. The November 2024 delivery term increased by 74 USD, trading at 4,452 USD/ton. Average trading volume.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York floor also increased sharply, with the September 2024 delivery period increasing by 5.55 cents, trading at 245.45 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the December 2024 delivery period increased by 6.05 cents, trading at 244.10 cents/lb. The average trading volume was high.

Domestic coffee prices at the end of the week (August 17) increased by 300 VND/kg in key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg

Average price	Medium
USD/VND exchange rate	24,860	- 20
DAK LAK	118,100	+ 300
LAM DONG	117,300	+ 300
GIA LAI	118,000	+ 300
DAK NONG	118,100	+ 300

(Source: giacaphe.com)

According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the world could face a shortage of robusta coffee of up to 35 million bags (60kg/bag) by 2040.

In July, Vietnam's average coffee export price reached a record of $4,951 per ton, up 75.1% year-on-year. Meanwhile, by the end of the first 10 months of the 2023-2024 crop year, Vietnam had exported more than 1.3 million tons of coffee, out of a total output of about 1.47 million tons for the current crop year.

The Import-Export Department ( Ministry of Industry and Trade ) forecasts that Vietnam's coffee exports in the remaining months of the third quarter will continue to decrease due to low supply. Only in October, when the 2024-2025 coffee harvest begins, will coffee supply increase again.

In the 2023-2024 crop year, Vietnam's coffee output is estimated at 1.47 million tons - the lowest level in 4 years, down 20% compared to the 2022-2023 crop year according to statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development. Coffee output in the 2024-2025 crop year is likely to continue to decrease due to unfavorable weather factors.

In the first 10 months of the 2023-2024 crop year (from October last year to July this year), Vietnam's coffee exports reached more than 1.3 million tons, equivalent to 90% of the current crop year's output and down 12.4% over the same period last crop year.

Excluding the inventory carried over from the previous year, Vietnam will only have about 130,000 tons of coffee left to export in the remaining two months of the 2023-2024 crop year (from August to the end of September).

This year's reduced output combined with low inventories from last year are the main reasons why Vietnam's coffee exports have continuously decreased in the past 6 months.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-1882024-gia-ca-phe-robusta-tang-hon-300-usd-trong-tuan-xu-huong-thi-truong-la-tang-manh-va-keo-dai-282945.html