Vietnam's stock market has just officially surpassed its historical peak - Photo: QUANG DINH
Stocks surpass historical peak
Opening the morning session on July 25, the stock market recorded clear differentiation between stock groups, in which cash flow mainly focused on the small and medium-cap groups.
On the contrary, the VN30 group - representing large-cap stocks - put pressure on the general index when many codes adjusted down.
Liquidity in this group decreased sharply, showing the caution of large cash flows. Stocks in the Vingroup group (VHM, VIC, VRE), consumer staples (VNM, MSN, SAB), information technology ( FPT ), steel (HPG) and large banks were all under slight selling pressure.
Notably, VPB and HDB were the two stocks that foreign investors bought the most strongly in the banking group, contributing to supporting the industry index and attracting speculative cash flow.
VN-Index closed up just over 2 points from the reference at the end of the morning session. Market liquidity increased slightly, with active buying dominating most of the time.
In the afternoon session, the increase range of VN-Index was wider, at times the market bounced up to 1,536, then gradually narrowed.
The VN30 large-cap group was quite balanced with 13 stocks increasing and 13 stocks decreasing. The increase of this index basket was lower than the general index. In particular, Vietjet Air's VJC increased to the maximum limit.
In contrast to the slowdown of large-cap stocks related to Vingroup , a series of small and medium-cap stocks "rose" in purple, adding momentum to the market. Among the group that increased to the maximum limit today, it is worth noting that many stocks in the GEX ecosystem such as VCG, VIX, GEX...
Cash flow continued to flow strongly into the stock market with a session of liquidity reaching nearly 42,000 billion VND. VN-Index thus increased by more than 10 points at the end of the session, climbing to the 1,531 point area.
With this development, the index representing the Vietnamese stock market has set a new record high, surpassing the historical peak set in 2022 with 1,528 points.
What is the market forecast after the index surpasses the peak?
In a quick exchange with Tuoi Tre Online right after the session ended, Mr. Nguyen The Minh - Director of individual customer analysis at Yuanta Vietnam Securities - said that in recent sessions, the index continued to grow quite strongly. However, it was mainly thanks to the leadership of financial stocks including banking and securities stocks.
Behind the positive numbers of the VN-Index are signs that short-term correction risks are forming, especially when the differentiation between industry groups is becoming increasingly clear.
Reality shows that market liquidity remains at a very high level, however, most of the cash flow is currently concentrated in a few industries, while many other groups have almost no breakthrough, many codes maintain a sideways or weak increase state.
One notable point is that the P/E ratio of VN-Index has now exceeded 15 times, approaching the 10-year average. According to Mr. Minh, this is often an important psychological and technical barrier, which has made it difficult for the market to maintain sustainable growth in previous periods.
Mr. Minh said that the market developments next week will depend largely on the ability of cash flow to spread from the financial group to the remaining industry groups.
He gave two main scenarios: If cash flow continues to spread to non-financial groups - especially groups that have been moving sideways in the past week, the VN-Index can hold above the 1,530-point threshold, creating a foundation for a positive trend in the medium term.
On the contrary, if the cash flow continues to focus only on the financial group, while the remaining groups fail to attract new demand, the market may fall into a short-term surfing state (T+), and the psychology of taking profits early will prevail. This makes investors' holding positions less stable, increasing the risk of market weakness and correction.
"Profit-taking pressure in the financial group next week will be very high, because most investors participating in this group last week made profits when goods arrived," Mr. Minh emphasized.
Source: https://tuoitre.vn/chung-khoan-viet-nam-thiet-lap-muc-cao-ky-luc-moi-vuot-dinh-lich-su-nam-2022-2025072515334551.htm
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