Is Russia's breakthrough in northern Pokrovsk a diversion?

Russia diverted Ukraine's attention from Pokrovsk with a breakthrough to Zolotoy Kolodez using top-secret operations, glide bombs and suicide squads.

Since August 11, the Russian Armed Forces (RFAF) launched a surprise attack on the northern flank of the city of Pokrovsk, located in the west of Donetsk Oblast, Eastern Ukraine; causing the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), to suffer the biggest defeat since the beginning of 2025.

The Military Chronicle channel reported that the Russian breakthrough in the direction of Pokrovsk could be a “diversionary attack”. While General Syrsky, Commander-in-Chief of the AFU, was deploying elite brigades to “stop” the attack, the RFAF continued to advance into Pokrovsk and attack inside the city.

Ukrainian sources say that the RFAF breakthrough in the Zolotoy Kolodez area was “stopped”; but the AFU General Staff cannot provide any evidence of this, no one has any real confirmation.

While the Russian Ministry of Defense has not commented on the fighting in this direction at all, there is no objective control footage, nor information support for the breakthrough. This is done to create the so-called "fog of war" so that the enemy cannot monitor the situation, and orient themselves based on Russian battlefield reports.

In this context, observers believe that the RFAF breakthrough in Zolotoy Kolodez could distract the enemy from the main events taking place in Pokrovsk. While Ukrainian generals are moving reserve forces from one place to another, trying to neutralize the breakthrough, Russian assault groups are advancing deeper into the city, where the key events are taking place.

According to Rybar's analysis, on August 11, the RFAF used special forces to break through the Ukrainian defense line through rapid and secretive deep penetration attacks, causing chaos on the Ukrainian front. At first, the AFU side thought it was just a reconnaissance attack, but when they understood the situation, the Russian troops had penetrated as deep as 18 kilometers.

According to information from the AFU General Staff, the RFAF has deployed about 110,000 troops on the Pokrovsk front, but initially they only used a small group of suicide commandos to break through. These commandos fought continuously for 72 hours, penetrating deep into the AFU defense line.

The Ukrainian army was severely short of reserves, with large gaps appearing on the defensive line, making it difficult to stop the RFAF’s next advance. This breakthrough operation demonstrated the RFAF General Staff’s ability to “seize the opportunity” quickly.

Unlike the classic tactic of "fire first, attack later", RFAF commandos conduct small-scale raids, combined with precision strike weapons such as guided bombs and suicide UAVs, to pave the way for the mechanized forces to follow.

This tactic of the RFAF not only improved its combat effectiveness but also effectively weakened the AFU's defense capabilities. Moreover, the RFAF's actions were carried out in absolute secrecy and were not detected by the AFU's ground and air intelligence. The AFU lacked early warning, which further aggravated the collapse of the defense line.

Through this RFAF breakthrough, the AFU's difficulties were further exposed, as the morale of officers and soldiers on the front lines was low. The Azov Brigade tried to block the RFAF breakthrough, but it was clear that they were at a disadvantage in terms of numbers and equipment, and it was difficult to reverse the situation.

Although Ukrainian officials claim that the situation north of Pokrovsk is “under control,” there is a clear gap between the actual situation and the statement, as the AFU not only failed to stop the advance of Russian special forces, but also had difficulty organizing an effective counterattack.

However, the subsequent deployment of Russian troops is the key issue. Although the commandos have achieved significant results, without timely reinforcements, they may miss the opportunity to expand and even create conditions for the Ukrainian army to encircle and destroy this deep penetration force.

On a geopolitical level, the diplomatic engagement between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Putin also has an impact on the fighting situation in Pokrovsk. If the RFAF can quickly expand its occupied territory, it will further strengthen its bargaining power.

If the AFU cannot mount an effective counterattack, the entire front north of Pokrovsk may no longer be in a stalemate. Looking ahead, if the RFAF can quickly reach the Ukrainian defenses, they will collapse completely, and Moscow will be able to seize more strategic positions.

However, if the RFAF acts slowly, the AFU can take this opportunity to build a new defense line or even counterattack with NATO support. For the AFU, the most important thing now is to reorganize its forces, to keep them where they should be, to concentrate troops in important directions. (photo source: Military Review, Ukrinform, Kyiv Post, TASS).

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